Prediction of tomorrow’s stock market / What factors affect the market?
According to Tejarat News, the total index of the Tehran Stock Exchange ended its work on Sunday with a decrease of more than 11,000 units. The decrease of 11 thousand and 611 units of the index will register a figure of 1 million and 468 thousand units for the total index on this day of 1401. Equal weight index also faced a drop of 3,200 units and stabilized at 402,000 units.
Experts and analysts are of the opinion that until the policies of the 13th government in the economic field do not change, the stock market trend will remain downward. Ebrahim Raisi promised during the election that he would not interfere in the internal affairs of the capital market and would not increase the interbank interest rate to more than 20%. But these days we see that none of these promises have been fulfilled and even the entire government cabinet is interfering in the stock market. The interbank interest rate has reached more than 20%.
What is the difference between bank and interbank interest rates?
Increasing the interbank interest rate in the long term is beneficial to the stock market, although the difference between the interbank interest rate and the bank interest rate should be taken into account. Some experts mistakenly consider the consequences of interbank interest rate and bank interest rate to be the same. But as long as the interbank interest rate has no effect on the deposit rate and granting of facilities, central bank overdraft and monetary base increase, it has a separate function and its real effect on the capital market is imperceptible and completely indirect.
On the other hand, the government’s economic policies and decisions and interventions every day have a negative impact on stock market transactions. From this point of view, it is the factor of reducing the confidence of the shareholders and withdrawing liquidity from the market.
Tuesday stock market forecast
Considering the recent events, it can be expected that trading on Tuesday will begin and end with a negative trend. Of course, it may become a bit positive in the middle of the road, but in general, the nature of the market is corrective and bearish, and one should not expect its growth.
Sara Fallah, the capital market analyst, also predicted that this week the capital market will experience a negative and close to balanced return. The return of small and medium shares of the market should be better than large shares.