Predictions of the environment in which symptoms are occurring

According to the head of the basic sciences department of the Academy of Sciences and professor of geology at Shiraz University, the conflict between the proposed solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with the national interests of countries is the reason for the failure of all efforts in this field; According to international forecasts, the average temperature of the earth will increase to 3.7 degrees Celsius by 2100; The reality is now witnessed by the melting of the polar ice caps, the extinction of many aquatic and coral colonies, the occurrence of floods and droughts, and the increase in the number of hurricanes.

According to ISNA, environmental geologists believe that in addition to the presence and increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere, the decrease in whiteness (Albedo) of the earth due to melting of ice sheets and platforms at two poles in an accelerated process And the feedback mechanism has played a role in increasing the average ground temperature. According to international forecasts, the average temperature of the earth by 2100 AD could rise to 3.7 degrees Celsius in different parts of the world.

Undoubtedly, such an event with very unpleasant events such as rising sea levels and submergence of coastal cities and islands, ocean water acidification and extinction of many aquatic and coral colonies, shrinking ice sheets of the North and ice rigs of the South, changing patterns Rainfall and intensification of monsoon rains and increase the probability of occurrence of climatic disasters such as severe heat waves, floods and droughts and increase in the number of storms. Humans have already seen that an increase in the average temperature of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius in some parts of the world has led to the extinction of some temperature-sensitive plant and animal species, exposing the ecosystem of many systems and destroying many others. Inevitably moved. This displacement of ecosystems has inevitably led to the shrinking or enlarging of the geographical area of ​​habitats, including the migration of human populations.

In this regard, Dr. Farid Moore, Associate Member and Head of the Basic Sciences Department of the Academy of Sciences, Professor of Geology, Shiraz University, explains in a note to the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA):

“The most important question that arises in the minds of every educated person in connection with the change of the earth’s climate is why man, in spite of his amazing scientific abilities, has failed to solve this global challenge that has endangered life on this planet. In response, it should be said that climate change is a global problem that also requires a global solution, and local solutions are not able to solve this problem.

On the other hand, development differences in different countries (developed, developing and underdeveloped), the existence of different economic systems (capitalism, socialism, communism) and political, military, religious, cultural or nationalist-racial differences in different human societies, achievement Has made universal agreement in this regard impossible. Reaching a global agreement on climate change requires countless trade-offs that will undoubtedly conflict with what are called the “national interests” of nations. This conflict of proposed solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is in the national interest of all countries. Despite the signing of memoranda of understanding and the commitment of countries to comply with the agreed provisions, the problem of climate change is not only not resolved, but is accelerating in the eyes of the world.

Earth formed as an independent planet in the solar system 4600 million years ago. The Earth’s early atmosphere was very different from what it is today, but over time, about 2,300 million years ago, the composition of the atmosphere became more or less similar to what it is today. Explosive expansion of species in a relatively short period of time called the “biological big bang” occurred on Earth 542 million years ago, and the age of the first terrestrial organisms dates back to 420 million years ago.

Based on geological artifacts, geologists believe that since the occurrence of the biological big bang, there have been five events that led to the mass extinction of many Earth species in 433, 359, 251, 200 and 65 million years ago, respectively. has happened. At least three of these mass extinctions have been attributed to extraterrestrial events, or “meteorites” that hit the Earth. Tourism is visited by tourists.

Apart from these five events leading to mass extinctions, an incident or series of events occurred about 55 million years ago on Earth at the boundary of the Paleocene-Eocene geological age, which geologists refer to as the “Paleocene-Eocene maximum heat” (PETM). It is known that during that time the earth’s temperature and the concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere rose sharply and the ocean water became so acidic that it led to the extinction of many plant and animal species at sea and on land. Many geologists believe that if the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere is not prevented, the Earth will face a situation similar to the PETM event in the not-too-distant future.

From the point of view of environmental climatology, the current climate change of the earth is the imbalance of its energy budget. Maintaining the balance of the Earth’s energy budget requires a relative parity of the radiant energy received from the Sun with the energy reflected from the Earth to space over a period of time. Solar energy reaches the earth in the form of visible and short wavelength radiation, and after absorbing 47% of this radiant energy on the earth’s surface, the rest of the energy is reflected into space in the form of long-wavelength (infrared) waves.

Of course, only 70% of the infrared waves reflected from the earth pass through its atmosphere and reach space; Because the other 30% is absorbed by the droplets that make up the clouds and greenhouse gases in the lowest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere (troposphere or wordosphere). The highest concentration of greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide (CO2), which in the atmosphere of about 300 parts per million (ppm) just before the Industrial Revolution and the invention of the steam engine by James Watt of Scotland, today reaches 415 ppm.

The concentration of this gas in the atmosphere has increased by 148% over the last decade. Of course, CO2 is not a very strong gas compared to other greenhouse gases in terms of absorbing infrared radiation reflected from the earth’s surface. The strongest greenhouse gas in the Earth’s atmosphere is “water vapor”, but fortunately this gas does not have the ability to accumulate in the atmosphere and when its concentration reaches a certain level, it turns into rain and falls on the ground. Many other greenhouse gases absorb more radiation than CO2. But the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide and its accumulation in the lower layers of the atmosphere is far greater than other gases.

In general, the reputation of CO2 gas as the most important greenhouse gas in the Earth’s atmosphere goes back to three cases; The first is its “relative length of residence time in the atmosphere”, the second is its “reaction with ocean water as a temporary storage of carbon dioxide in the form of carbonate and bicarbonate of calcium in aquatic organisms and the formation of carbonic acid” and finally and perhaps to The title of the most important reason is the “steady increase in atmospheric gas due to the burning of fossil fuels in power plants and vehicles.”

After carbon dioxide, methane is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the Earth’s atmosphere, whose concentration in the atmosphere in the last decade (2021-2011) increased from 1817 parts per billion (ppb) by 206 percent to 1869 parts per billion. Radiative forcing Each molecule of methane gas is 30 times the radiative pressure of one molecule of CO2 gas and its retention time in the atmosphere is more than twice the retention time of carbon dioxide. Important sources of methane production on earth, in addition to human waste, are cow dung and large industrial farms in the developed countries of the world and Argentina.

One of the main reasons why environmentalists fight against carnivore is the large amount of methane gas produced in farms. But the most important thing about methane greenhouse gases is that large volumes of this gas are trapped in the ice of the bed of many seas and oceans in the crystal structure of a mixture of water called clathrate, which heats up as the ocean warms and melts. The chelate molecules are released and quickly enter the Earth’s atmosphere. Some environmental geologists believe that the PETM event was the result of such a process.

In addition to the presence and increase of greenhouse gas concentrations, especially carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere, the decrease in the whiteness (Albedo) of the earth due to melting of ice sheets and platforms at two poles in an accelerating process and feedback mechanism in increasing the average temperature Earth has played a role. According to the International IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change), the average temperature of the earth by 2100 AD could rise to 3.7 degrees Celsius in different parts of the world.

Undoubtedly, such an event with very unpleasant events such as rising sea levels and submergence of coastal cities and islands, ocean water acidification and extinction of many aquatic and coral colonies, shrinking ice sheets of the North and ice rigs of the South, changing patterns Rainfall and intensification of monsoon rains and increase the probability of occurrence of climatic disasters such as severe heat waves, floods and droughts and increase in the number of storms. Humans have already seen that an increase in the average temperature of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius in some parts of the world has led to the extinction of some temperature-sensitive plant and animal species, exposing the ecosystem of many systems and destroying many others. Inevitably moved. This displacement of ecosystems has inevitably led to a reduction or enlargement of the geographical area of ​​habitats, including the migration of human populations.

Other evidence to support the IPCC forecast is the destruction of the world’s largest coral colony, the Great Barrier Reef, which is more than 2,000 km long in Australia and is currently in a very unfavorable situation. .

Antarctic ice melting has tripled compared to 25 years ago, and several trillion tons of ice is melted annually from the Greenland plateau in the Arctic. Melting ice in these areas has led to the fragmentation of habitats for animals such as polar bears, and this species and many species of penguins and sea lions are endangered. The migration of pathogenic insects and pests to higher geographical orbits should also be considered as a consequence of the increase in the average temperature of the earth.

Given the above briefly, the crisis is the first signs of climate change in Iran, including desertification, change in precipitation pattern, drying of wetlands, dust crisis and even inter-provincial migration. “The global crisis and, above all, the country’s environmental protection organization, should strive to resolve this crisis by adopting local and indigenous measures to reach a global solution in the international community.”