Prospects for continued growth in the coming year

According to Iran Economist, the changes in the real sector of Iran’s economy in the third quarter and nine months of 1401 were published by the central bank. Economic growth without oil reached 3.7% in 9 months of 1401.

According to the preliminary calculations of the Economic Accounts Department of the Central Bank, the gross domestic product at basic prices (and constant prices of 2015) reached 3821.9 thousand billion Rials in the third quarter of 2011, which is a 5.3% growth compared to the third quarter of 2010. it shows.

Also, economic growth without oil in the mentioned period was equal to 4.5%, which indicates the centrality of non-oil economic sectors in the realization of economic growth in the third quarter of 1401.

Components of economic growth

Investigating the state of investment in different economic sectors (at constant prices of 2015) shows that in the third quarter of 2011, “gross fixed capital formation” enjoyed a growth of 16.6 percent compared to the same period of the previous year, which is mainly the result of growth performance. Positive capital formation in the “machinery” sector is equal to 28.3 percent.

In total, the performance of the country’s gross domestic product at the base price in 9 months of 1401 “including oil” and “without oil” at constant prices of 2015 reached 11,569.3 and 10,611.3 thousand billion rials, respectively, compared to the same period of the previous year, respectively. It has been associated with an increase of 3.7 and 3.2 percent.

The realization of 3.7% economic growth in the nine months of 1401 along with the 4.4% economic growth of 1400 indicates the improving trend of economic activities in the country despite the continuation of economic sanctions.

Economic growth components in the third quarter of 1401

Examining the performance of economic growth according to the group of economic activities shows that the growth of gross domestic product in the third quarter of 1401 was the result of the positive growth of added value in all groups. It is necessary to explain that in the reported period, the achieved growth of the groups “Oil and Gas”, “Industries and Mines”, “Services” and “Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing” compared to the same period of the previous year is 15.4, 8.9, 3.3 respectively. and 1.1 percent.

The examination of gross domestic product in terms of final cost items (at constant prices of 2015) in the third quarter of 2011 shows, “final consumption costs of the private sector”, “final consumption costs of the public sector” and “formation of gross fixed capital” respectively from the rates 11.3, 16.0 and 16.6 percent growth compared to the same period last year. In this period, the growth of gross fixed capital formation by “machinery” and “building” was equal to 28.3% and 6.9%, respectively.

Components of economic growth in 9 months of 1401

Examining the performance of economic growth according to the group of economic activities in the nine months of 1401 shows that the growth of the added value of the groups “Services”, “Industries and Mines”, “Oil and Gas” and “Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing” compared to the same period of the previous year to The order was equal to 2.8, 5.6, 9.3, and 1.1 percent, which had a share equal to 1.6, 1.3, 0.7, and 0.2 percentage units in the economic growth of the nine months of 1401, respectively.

In the reported period, the added value of the “Industry” sector at constant prices of 2015 had an increase of 8.0% compared to the same period of 2014; Specifically, in this sector, the growth index of the production of large industrial workshops with 100 workers and more – with a share of about 70% of the added value of the industrial sector – compared to the same period in 1400 was equal to 8.3%.

Examining the growth performance of the mentioned index by industrial activities field (in terms of two-digit ISIC codes) shows that in the nine months of 1401, out of a total of 24 main groups, 23 groups (with an importance factor of 95.1 percent of the total index) have positive production growth. have been; Among the industries that have contributed the most to the growth of this period, we can mention “motor vehicle, trailer and semi-trailer manufacturing industries”, “basic metal manufacturing industries” and “chemical materials and products manufacturing industries”.

The review of gross domestic product in terms of final cost items in the nine months of 1401 shows that “final consumption costs of the private sector” and “gross fixed capital formation” at the constant prices of 2015 have enjoyed the same growth rate of 7.7% compared to the nine months of the previous year. In this period, the performance of “final consumption expenses of the public sector” has experienced a decrease of 0.7% compared to the same period of 1400.

The realized growth of “gross fixed capital formation” in the reported period was mainly affected by the growth of gross fixed capital formation in the “Machinery” sector (equivalent to 19.7%). It should be noted that the growth of gross fixed capital formation (at constant prices of 2015) in the “machinery” sector in the first, second and third quarters of 2011 was 16.5, 12.6 and 28.3%, respectively, compared to the same period of the previous year. .

You can read the full text of the report here Economic growth Get +

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