Re-starting the trend of decreasing inflation point by point from August
According to the financial news report According to the Public Relations of the Central Bank, the Department of Research and Policies of the Central Bank responded to Dunya Ekhetaz newspaper by publishing an article about inflation rate developments and exchange rate fluctuations and making a unilateral claim that “point inflation rate in the past year from 34.7 The percentage has increased to 41.8%!? He clarified: Some claims regarding the economic performance in the last one year have been raised by citing the increase in the inflation rate point by point in a situation where according to the Central Bank’s report on the changes in the price index of consumer goods and services in urban areas, the inflation rate (twelve months) ) at the time of the beginning of the 13th government, it had reached 59.3% in September 1400, but following the implemented policies and executive measures in the field of more effective management of monetary aggregates, stabilization of the currency market, monitoring of commodity prices and services and proper supply of basic goods, the inflation rate started a downward trend from that point on and reached 46.2% at the end of 1400, which confirms the decrease of 13.0 percentage points in the inflation rate. In this connection, the point-to-point inflation rate decreased by 25.3 percentage points from 54.9% in September 1400 to 29.5% in March of this year.
Based on this, although the point-by-point inflation rate reduction trend from the beginning of this year was affected by the inflationary effects of the implementation of the legal mandate of the subsidy popularization plan and the removal of preferential currency allocation, and it faced an increasing trend in the first four months of this year as expected, but considering As the above-mentioned policy usually led to the price correction of a number of goods subject to receiving preferential currency directly and indirectly, the inflation level of basic food commodities returned to its previous path from August of this year and in total point-to-point inflation of the price index of consumer goods and services from August of this year was accompanied by a decrease, which continued in November of this year and reached 43.3% from 45.8% in August of this year.
Meanwhile, the twelve-month average inflation rate in November of this year was recorded as 39.9 percent, which shows a 19.4 percent decrease compared to the inflation rate at the time of the establishment of the 13th government (59.3 percent).
According to the calculations, about 11.7 percentage points of the increase in inflation formed during this year is related to the correction of the prices of basic goods in the implementation of the subsidy popularization plan.
Therefore, by deducting the inflationary effects of the implementation of this plan, the implementation of which was inevitable due to economic necessity, lower levels of the inflation rate could also be realized as a result of the measures and measures taken.
Therefore, referring only to the point-by-point increase in the inflation rate regardless of the relations and economic conditions of the recent period, including the implementation of the large subsidy popularization plan, will be a one-sided and far from fair assessment. Especially, in the recent period, most of the world economies have been faced with the rising trend of inflation due to factors such as the increase in global prices in the field of energy and basic goods.
Regarding the claim of a sharp increase in the exchange rate in the 13th government and recording figures of around 350 thousand rials in the past days, it should also be noted that before in 2019, the dollar rate in the remittance and banknote market, as well as in the informal market, could be increased. At the same time, the currency market was facing inflammation and severe price fluctuations.
So that the dollar rate in the informal market and the dollar remittance rate went from about 150 and 135 thousand rials at the beginning of 2019 to about 320 and 270 thousand rials in October 2019, respectively. In other words, within six months, it experienced 113.3 and 100 percent growth, respectively.
However, during the past months of the activity of the 13th government, the Central Bank’s approach has been to direct the exchange rates in these two markets towards equilibrium levels (commensurate with the fundamental components of the economy) by organizing and deepening the official remittance and banknote market. In the meantime, while trying to strengthen the supply in this market and respond to all real foreign exchange needs, seriously reduce and minimize the areas of trading in the informal market.
Affected by the measures taken, the average dollar rate experienced a relatively stable trend in both the official market (money orders and bills) and the informal market; So that the standard deviation of the dollar rate in the informal market (as a measure of exchange rate fluctuations) in the second half of 1400 decreased by about 42% compared to the first half of the said year.
Considering the above and considering the importance of fairness in expressing expert criticism and analysis of the country’s economic issues, it is necessary to avoid expressing popular and one-sided content and analyzes that do not help to enlighten public opinion about the economic realities of the country.