Riyadh in the Circuit of Logic – IRNA
According to the IRNA foreign policy correspondent, the positive signals have calmed the negative atmosphere in the relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia and prepared a new round of relations. Although it is too early to talk about the desired level of relations, and barriers and trans-regional interventions to escalate tensions remain, there is at least some evidence of the will needed to resolve the misunderstandings. The Thirteenth Government’s view of the region and its relations, and the West Asian need for a level of calm and understanding by the Saudi rulers, have been cited as a precursor to positive signals; Although given the highly influential variables in these relationships, speculations should not be optimistic, but the signals mentioned can be thought-provoking.
A turnaround for national interests
The region, its neighbors, and their relations have returned to the top of the State Department’s agenda and priorities since the 13th administration took office, and a path has been taken that, if Middle East cooperates, can expand and consolidate ties, resolve existing misunderstandings, and address transregional abuses. . Ayatollah Seyyed Ibrahim Ra’isi, in defining the foreign policy priorities of his government, has sought new capacities and tried to top the Middle East in the list of relations with the world. The whispers of the resumption of relations between Tehran and Riyadh, even after 6 years of diplomatic tension and coldness, can also be assessed in this regard; The whispers that began last spring and were followed more seriously than ever by the 13th government took office. According to the president, the government will be present and play a role wherever there is a possibility and capacity to secure and consolidate national interests, and the tactic of waiting and opening up to Europe and approval from the United States can no longer serve national interests.
Centers of tension between Tehran and Riyadh
The not-so-warm relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia experienced their coldest period in the winter of 1996, after the execution of Sheikh Nimr, a Shiite cleric, and Iran’s protest against this inhumane act led to the severance of diplomatic relations between the two countries. The Mena incident and the martyrdom of a number of Iranian pilgrims to the House of God and the Islamic Republic’s protest against the irresponsibility of the Riyadh authorities in the incident, darkened relations and this darkness remained until the spring of last year. In all these years, other issues affected these relations, the most important of which was Yemen and the Saudi coalition’s attack on the defenseless people of this country. The Islamic Republic has repeatedly condemned the military aggression and economic siege of the oppressed people of Yemen and called on Saudi Arabia and its allies to refrain from continuing it. In the most recent of these warnings and recommendations, the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, in a meeting with officials and agents of the regime, said on April 14: You will not win it, will you continue? Is it possible for the Saudis to win the war in Yemen? It is not possible either. “So why a war in which there is no chance of victory?” It seems that with the solution that the Saudis have taken in recent weeks to end the war in Yemen, one can hope that one of the most important obstacles in the Tehran-Riyadh relationship will be removed.
Riyadh’s influence on trans-regional policies and Western interference in the details of Iran-Saudi Arabia relations are other variables in Tehran-Saudi Arabia relations. Using media and political tools, the United States is trying to make the Islamic Republic a formidable enemy of its neighbors and, in the shadow of Iranophobia, turn Saudi petrodollars and other Gulf states into various and expensive weapons and store them in their arsenals. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said in a thought-provoking report that a quarter of US arms sales to Saudi Arabia were between 2014 and 2019, up from about 7% between 2010 and 2014. With these descriptions, the United States will spare no effort to maintain these two strategies; Even if US President Joe Biden, contrary to his predecessor, claims a review of US policy toward Saudi Arabia and insists that “US priorities in the Middle East should be set in Washington, not Riyadh.”
On the other hand, the policy of maintaining security and stabilizing the Zionist regime in the region is also a defined White House project to seek to normalize the Zionist occupations in the shadow of pacts such as Ibrahim and Naqb, and that is why the whispers of normalization began. Iran-Saudi Arabia relations have made the Zionist regime anxious and “Mike Herzog”, the Israeli ambassador to the United States, described this normalization as making Tehran bolder! Tel Aviv has long sought to hunt down herring to justify its crimes and occupation through the muddy waters of tensions between Tehran and Riyadh.
Ultimately, the less the Saudi government reduces the impact of these variables on its relations with Tehran, the more it can hope to improve those relations. The sum of regional and global events over the past year or so also indicates a willingness to reduce the impact of variables. The first fact is that Riyadh is not very enthusiastic about its relations with Washington, especially in the new era, and it has shown this discouragement in the negative response to the US request for energy supply or non-compliance with Washington’s policies towards Moscow. The second fact is the strong presence and influence of Iran in Southwest Asia, which neither the countries of the region nor the supra-regions can deny, and this undeniable fact has the potential to change many equations in the region and even the world. The reconciliation path taken by the young Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, in the first step, removes Qatar from the list of enemies and in the second step, it can repair the challenges with Iran.
Iraq, the new mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia
The imbalance resulting from the balance in the relations of the countries in the region also affects the neighbors. In the specific issue of Tehran-Riyadh relations, due to its importance, a number of governments in the region have always appeared in the mediating role of relations between the two countries. The latest mediator is Iraq, and talks between the two countries have taken place in Baghdad in recent months. The talks, which Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein described as the result of a 10-point memorandum of understanding. Earlier, Iraqi sources reported that the two sides agreed to upgrade the meetings from security to diplomacy. Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi also announced the real opening of Saudi-Iranian relations on May 30, stating that Iraq has a direct interest in building understanding between the countries of the region and achieving regional stability. Seyyed Reza Sadr al-Husseini, an expert on regional issues, said that the reasons behind the approval of Baghdad as a mediator by Iran and Saudi Arabia were: Accordingly, the Islamic Republic is interested in establishing logical, strong and reasoned relations with Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, he is interested in Iraq [به عنوان یک کشور دوست و همسایه نزدیک] “To be able to play a positive role and act in the Islamic world and the Arab world.”
Stability of the region in the shadow of a good relationship
“Security and stability”, the two rare gems of the Middle East and Southwest Asia, is not and will not be possible except with the support of all countries in the region. This accompaniment has both requirements and obstacles, and there must be a serious will to remove it. The long tradition of turmoil in the Middle East is not possible by relying on foreign actors, and this security must be endogenous.
The Supreme Leader of the Revolution’s view of security and territorial and regional components as the final determinant of Iran’s policies in the region also shows that the Islamic Republic considers the most important principle of security in both domestic and foreign spheres to be internalization and reliance on the country and region. Ayatollah Khamenei, in a joint graduation ceremony for students of the Armed Forces’s military academies on October 1, 1400, called one of the most catastrophic disasters for the countries of the world foreign intervention in security issues, planning war and peace, and emphasizing: “This is a catastrophic tragedy.” “It is for any country that is in such a situation, and you have noticed and said that today, even European countries that are breathing under the umbrella of NATO, want to move independently.”
The Supreme Leader of the Revolution, in a meeting with a group of army commanders and staff, in April 1994, clarified about Iran’s view of regional security: He also tolerates many cases of mistreatment of some neighbors. “The Islamic Republic – for itself and for others – considers security to be the greatest divine blessing and stands up and defends it to maintain its security.”
The presence of the Zionist regime in the region and their coercive influence in the countries of the region, in the long run and due to the nature of this regime can have many harms for themselves and Iran will be aware of this issue to maintain vigilance against these Tel Aviv adventures. It also warns the countries of the region about the regime’s unrest and warns that there will be no security in the world and in the region in the shadow of the Israeli spider.
Regarding the importance of security in West Asia and the Islamic Republic’s vision in this regard, Sadr al-Husseini believes: The name is regional security; “Therefore, the outcome of the negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is very important for the region.”
Iran and Saudi Arabia, as two important countries in the Islamic world, can positively intervene in the problems faced by other Muslim countries in the region and help resolve the crises in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria if the talks continue and reach a certain point. The Saudi Muslim market of 30 million people can be a market for many Iranian products, and Iran is giving such capacity to its southwestern neighbor.
The ups and downs of Iran-Saudi Arabia relations must be controlled
“Seyed Sabah Zanganeh, an analyst on West Asian issues in analyzing Iran-Saudi Arabia relations and the components affecting these relations, while emphasizing that all kinds of possibilities are given in politics, said:” In evaluating any international relations, four elements should be considered: obstacles and Opportunities, weaknesses, and strengths and weaknesses that exist in any relationship.
Evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of the Iran-Saudi Arabia relationship, the expert on international relations said: “From the neighborhood and the unity of religion to participation in regional issues and international organizations such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and OPEC, there are common strengths between Riyadh and Tehran.” The weaknesses of these relations are due to the change in the policies of Tehran and Riyadh towards each other for various reasons. Saudi Arabia does not support Iran’s support for the people of Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Does not consider religious and sacred possibility to be human; The negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia went well until the fourth round, but at the same time it was stopped by the execution of a large number of Shiites in this country by the Saudi rulers.
Zanganeh also says about external factors affecting relations: “In these relations, external factors also have their own place; US pressure on Saudi Arabia for not being close to Iran, Zionist regime’s overt and covert pressure on Riyadh, Iran’s relations with Qatar and Yemen are among the most important external factors influencing Iran-Saudi relations, and all these internal and external factors, if properly controlled. “If not, there is always the possibility of intensifying the ups and downs of relations.” Noting that tensions are easing as some of these factors disappear, he noted that “the extremist government in the United States has given way to a more moderate government, and this could “It is effective in reducing stress.”