Saturday stock market forecast/What is the problem of the stock market?
According to Tejarat News, the stock market lost 0.05% today and reached the range of 1.513 thousand units. Experts believe that the capital market will remain bearish until the value of stock exchange transactions increases.
Barzo Haqshanas, a capital market expert, said in a conversation with TejaratNews: “The stock market is severely suffering from a lack of liquidity.” There is no liquidity in the market and the volume of transactions is very low. For example, the trading volume of the stock exchange today was 3,500 billion tomans. In general, the value of stock exchange transactions every day is about 3,500 to 4 billion.
He continued: The stock market is fundamentally good and somehow valuable. But the capital market is lagging behind other markets and it will not move until liquidity enters it and the volume of transactions does not increase.
About the factors affecting the market, Haqshanas said: The stock market is waiting for several factors, each of which can have an impact on transactions. The first one is the dollar rate and JCPOA negotiations, and any news in this area has an impact on the capital market.
This capital market expert continued: The second component is the interbank interest rate, which the glass hall reacts to when it rises. Despite the fact that the bank rate should remain in the range of 20%, we see its weekly increase. On the other hand, point by point inflation has reached over 52% and the real interest rate is becoming more negative. All these things have a negative effect on the market in the long run.
The hand of the government in the pocket of the stock market
Haqshanas explained: Despite the election promises, the government has reached into the pockets of stock exchange companies. For example, the utility trend of petrochemicals shows this problem. On the other hand, power outage is one of the important risks. If the discussion of electricity shortage starts in August and July, the market will price these.
He emphasized: Next week is the most important thing Nuclear negotiations And by its nature The price of the dollar and the interbank interest rate. Any of these can affect the market trend. That is, the good news or bad news of the JCPOA and the increase or decrease of the interbank interest rate can affect the market.
Haqshanas explained: Despite the election promises, the government has reached into the pockets of stock exchange companies. For example, the utility trend of petrochemicals shows this problem. On the other hand, power outage is one of the important risks. If the discussion of electricity shortage and maybe blackouts starts in August and July, the market will value these things.
Referring to the growth of the stock market, Haqshana said: “Until the value of market transactions reaches five thousand billion tomans, I don’t expect any particular movement from the market.” Until then, the positive trends are temporary. If the demand side becomes strong and the value of transactions reaches at least five thousand billion, then we can say that the market is trending and positive conditions are really promising.
Read the latest capital market news on Tejarat News Stock Exchange page.