Stock market forecast for Monday, March 22, 1401 / Resumption of stock market trading with a partial view of dollar fluctuations
According to Tejarat News, the stock market transactions on Monday took place while the total index took a step in the direction of the previous day, but went down the downward path with greater speed; Accordingly, the main index of the glass hall faced a drop of 33,571 units, which is equivalent to 1.8% of this index, and ended at a height of 1,783,000 units.
The equal-weighted total index behaved in line with the total index and reached the level of 539,647 units with a decrease of 1.8 percent. It should be mentioned that the board of Tehran Stock Exchange shows the volume of today’s transactions at 12.470 billion and the value of transactions at 5.984 billion tomans.
Investigating the ownership statistics of real people indicates the withdrawal of real people’s capital from the stock market. The index of capital inflows and outflows at the end of Sunday’s stock exchange reports that 846 billion tomans of money was withdrawn from the stock market.
The main cause of supply pressure in the capital market
The perspective of the last 10 days of the year in the capital market is such that there is a lot of supply in the market in the traditional way, and one of the important reasons for that is companies that need to recognize profits or need liquidity for some reason.
On the other hand, among ordinary people, some are not interested in shareholders during Nowruz holidays. For this reason, the supply in March is generally considered high. Therefore, if the demand side is not strong enough, it can lead to the reddening of the whole market map.
But according to the events that have happened in the field of diplomacy, we see that the demand side has also appeared strong and it seems that we will have a balanced and positive market in a few working days until the end of the year.
Is the decrease in the price of the currency the Achilles heel of the capital market?
The event that affected the market recently was the high fluctuation of the exchange rate, which moved rapidly up to the range of 60,000 tomans, and after that, it has continued to decrease.
The point that should be noted here is that the dollar of 60 thousand tomans was not digestible for the country’s economy at the current stage and it is considered an abnormal move. Iran did not have the elasticity of the dollar of 60 thousand tomans.
Another point that should be noted was the correlation of capital market companies with dollar fluctuations. The question of how many percent of listed companies were able to align with the free dollar?
For example, the largest dollar group of the capital market is the petrochemical industry, which all economic operators know, companies in this industry could never price their products based on free market dollars. (What are the goods that were discovered in the commodity exchange with supply and demand, and what are the dollars from the export of products that were quoted at much lower rates than the free dollar)
Therefore, when the largest dollar group of the capital market is facing such a situation, the downward trend of the exchange rate in the last two weeks cannot be considered a weakness for the stock market.
Stock forecast
As mentioned above, the process of selling pressure at the beginning of the transactions by the market officials will probably continue in the market on Monday 22nd of March due to the approaching of the last days of the year, but it is expected that in the continuation of the transactions, the demand will increase and the transactions of symbols The smaller the market, the trend towards equilibrium.
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