Stock market forecast for Sunday 24 May 1402 / Suicide for fear of death? – Tejarat News

According to Tejarat News, the trading flow of shares of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, on the first day of the last week of May, was faced with strong supply pressure at the same time as the start of trading whistle.

Over time, the supply slope gradually decreased. We also witnessed the relative withdrawal of sellers in the second half of the transactions; So that in the trading board of most of the market symbols, including refining stocks and basic metals group, the price of the last transaction had a significant gap with the closing price.

Wrong address of officials in the capital market

While the upward trend of the capital market, which started in November 1401, was followed with great strength until the last two weeks, and the amount of money coming in reached an average of two thousand billion Tomans daily, suddenly with the strong supply pressure last week. faced So that only during 5 working days, more than 13% of the height of the total index decreased.

Homan Omidi, a capital market expert, in a conversation with Tejarat News regarding the origins of this ongoing trend in the stock market, said: “The market was moving on its growth path and compensating for the level of backwardness compared to parallel markets, according to the fundamental parameters. But the non-expert and largely directional comments unfortunately ruined the bullish atmosphere.”

This capital market expert continued: “Actually, the comments regarding the stock market went in such a way that they pushed the market towards suicide due to the fear of death. This was the fear of repeating the events of 1999 and the market becoming a bubble, while as stated, the growth of the market in the last 6 months was based on fundamental and economic parameters.

Omidi added: “Of course, the lawyers had sold high volumes during this period and they didn’t mind a correction in the market. In the end, this correction is for the benefit of the market, but it did not happen at the right time. Maybe the authorities should exercise more restraint and use the experiences of experts. Currently, however, the tendency towards building public confidence and eliminating panic is the result of the correction of market volatility.

Will the total index return to its upward trend?

The half-hearted return that happened in the second half of Saturday trading revived a small hope in the hearts of the shareholders. This reversal made the price of the last transaction to be significantly different from the closing price in the trading board of most of the market symbols, including refining stocks and basic metals group. Also, the sales line of big symbols such as “Car” gathered.

In response to the possible return of the capital market trend, Omidi said: “The mentioned signals are good signs in the market, but they are not enough for the return of the trend.” The risk of decision making by the supervisory body in the implementation and intervention in the market is a big risk that threatens the stock market.

He continued: “If in the next stages, in the form of concern or sympathy, interference from supervisory institutions, friends in the Islamic Council or even tribunes not related to the market, will cause the stock market to change suddenly, the risk is Systematic instability is imposed on the investor.

Umidi also stated: Interventions in the market process are not necessarily direct; For example, by reducing the credit allocation coefficient of brokerages, the signal of risk and sale is issued to the shareholders. In such a situation, statements such as the absence of a bubble in the capital market by Khandozi, the Minister of Economy, will not have much effect on the downward trend of the market due to the contradiction with actions and policies.

Stock forecast

Regarding the forecast of the stock market in the coming days, Umidi said: “The range of two million and 150 thousand to two million and 200 thousand units is an important range for the overall index. If the market bounces back in this range with the emergence of buyers, it can be said that the short-term correction is over. But if there is a time erosion correction in the mentioned range, we have to wait for more correction.”

In the end, he added: “In general, we did not have a decrease in property value in other markets, and this happened only in the capital market. It was because of the wrong address given by the authorities and the market was scared.”

The stock market through the lens of statistics

In the end, the total index of the Tehran Stock Exchange ended Saturday trading with a decrease of 63,666 units. The mentioned drop put the total index at a height of two million and 214 thousand units so that it is not far from losing its 2.2 million channel.

On the other side of the market, the equal-weight indicator of the glass hall, with a sharper drop than the total index, reports the high supply in medium and small stocks of the capital market. The total equal weight index dropped by 29,901 units, equivalent to 3.91% of the height of this index, and reached the range of 734,000 units.

The board of Tehran Stock Exchange shows the volume of transactions on Saturday at 20.620 billion and the value of transactions at 11.929 billion tomans.

Investigating the ownership statistics of real people indicates a heavy withdrawal of real capital from the stock market. The index of capital inflow and outflow at the end of the stock exchange at the beginning of the week reports the withdrawal of 3,459 billion tomans from the stock exchange.

Read more market analysis reports on the stock market news page.