Stock market forecast for Sunday 30th of February 1401 / Is the decision of the Consolidation Commission in favor of the capital market?

According to Tejarat News, the index of the whole stock market started a downward trend last week, contrary to the path it took in the third week of February. At the end of the third week of February, the main index of the Glass Hall was at the height of 1 million 558 thousand units and this week it reached 1 million 524 thousand units to register a 2.2% drop in its portfolio.

On the other hand, the equal-weighted index moved in line with the total stock market index and had a 2.2% drop. While there is only one day left in February, the market equilibrium indicator is at a height of 474,000 units.

Entry and exit of real money

Investigating the ownership statistics of real people indicates the withdrawal of real people’s capital from the stock market. The index of capital inflow and outflow at the end of the stock exchange on Wednesday reports the withdrawal of 503 billion tomans from the stock market, which is very worrying.

As the end of February is approaching, it can be said that the outflow of money has intensified in the eleventh month of the year. Experts emphasize that during the events that took place in the capital market in the last month, all the flow of real money that had entered the stock market since the beginning of November was withdrawn from the market, so that the shareholders saw only two days of real money entering the market this month. They were.

In terms of weekly review, this week, 1,397 billion tomans of real liquidity was recorded from the capital market.

Although the outflow of real money can be interpreted as equivalent to the purchase of legal entities and their support of one thousand and 397 billion tomans from the capital market, but the historical review of the trends of the Tehran Stock Exchange shows that the stable growth of the capital market with a trending flow is not possible without the entry of real capital.

Sunday stock forecast

In the last days of last week, the Budget Consolidation Commission in the Parliament voted to delete Clause “C” of Note 8 of the Budget Bill. With the removal of this paragraph, which was related to the supply of urea in the commodity exchange, we see another page of the long movie of mandatory pricing in the Iranian economy.

With this decision, if it is approved and finalized, the interests of 20 million shareholders and beneficiaries will be jeopardized and it will be completely against the direction of the slogans of the government and parliament to support the capital market.

But yesterday, very important news for the capital market was transmitted by the parliament, which we will see the positive impact of this week’s trade opening. Earlier, by determining the gas feed rate of seven thousand tomans by the government, which was included in the next year’s budget bill, we checked how various industries such as petrochemicals, refineries, cement and steel industry will be included in the budget staple.

For example, the methanol producers were investigated, and this group had many challenges to continue their activities at last year’s rate, and even a number of methanol production units in the country were closed due to the lack of economic efficiency in production.

Yesterday, news came from Baharestan that the Budget Bill Consolidation Commission has decided to remove the rate of seven thousand tomans from the budget bill.

Also, the Vice Chairman of the Consolidation Commission of Budget Bill 1401 in a statement claimed that during the decisions of the Consolidation Commission, the government was allowed to adjust the feed rate of industries and petrochemicals in order to support the industry and production sector.

With the start of this week’s trading on Sunday, we should wait for the positive impact of this news on the mentioned groups and, accordingly, the market as a whole.

On the other hand, the movements of the dollar in the free market have intensified. It goes without saying that some experts believe that market participants’ reactivity to dollar movements has weakened, but the effects of the free dollar’s growing trend can still be seen in the market.

If the gap of more than 60% between the Nima dollar and the Azad dollar disappears, we can expect the growth of the capital market, especially the dollar-denominated industries.