Stock market forecast for Sunday, July 18, 1402 / The continuing effect of negative shocks on the market – Tejaratnews

According to Tejarat News, after three consecutive weeks, Tehran Stock Exchange managed to end the second week of July with a positive result and a growth of 2.29%. Meanwhile, the total equal weight index grew faster and at the end of last week’s trading, it managed to register a 3.96% increase in its height.

However, the stock market trading on the first day of the week took place while the total index decided to correct its rise last week and the shares of more than 56% of the capital market companies turned negative. So that the main indicator of the glass hall faced a drop of seven thousand and 526 units, which is equivalent to 0.34% of this index.

Accordingly, at the end of Saturday trading, the total index stood at the level of two million and 195 thousand units and lost its valuable channel of 2.2 million units. But the equal weight index was not the same as the total index and increased by 1,290 units and reached 777,468 units.

The significant decrease in the volume of transactions since the middle of May, as well as the absence of strong money in the stock market, have caused index-making stocks to be in the shade. In such a situation, small market money will go to medium and small market stocks to be subject to stock movements and to be freed from the stagnant conditions governing the flow of transactions.

Tehran Stock Exchange under the microscope of statistics and figures

The board of the Tehran Stock Exchange shows the volume of transactions on Saturday at eight billion and 500 million shares and the value of the transactions at five thousand and 937 billion tomans. It should be noted that these numbers are related to stock transactions, pre-emptive rights and stock funds.

Investigating the ownership statistics of real people indicates the withdrawal of real people’s capital from the stock market. The index of capital inflow and outflow at the end of the stock exchange on the first day of the third week of July reports the outflow of 220 billion tomans from shares, preemptive rights and equity funds.

Stock market adhesion to shocks

More than a week has passed since the decision to increase the feed rate of petroleum refining industries and the impact it had on the shareholders’ trust in the stock market. While some believed that the effect of the glass hall was fading last week, the performance of the stock market on the first day of the week showed that although the fever has subsided, its recessionary effects are still evident.

According to experience, when negative shocks enter the stock market, the prices and, accordingly, the indices fluctuate rapidly. In the meantime, it is important to note that after experiencing a negative shock, the market hardly returns to the normal situation. Accordingly, although during the correction of the one-month trend, nearly 16%, equivalent to 402 thousand units, was reduced from the height of the total index, it is still not possible to quickly return to the equilibrium rail of the market.

Arguments and demands regarding the government’s revision regarding the rate of petrochemical feed gas continue. In this situation, if the position of Pastor residents does not change in relation to the seven thousand tomans feed rate of petroleum refining companies, in addition to the fact that the profits of these industries will decrease directly, the time needed to restore the market’s confidence must also be passed so that the market as a whole is again in the cycle of prosperity. take

For this reason, despite the fact that many stocks are currently at price floors, the market continues to freeze.

Low-risk industries of Tehran Stock Exchange

In a situation where the market is afraid of systematic risk, small and medium-sized groups, which are far from the sting of decisions of the people, have less risk for investment. For example, pharmaceutical groups, symbols of the cement industry, and food stocks are among these market industries.

Also, the examination of this group in terms of P/E shows that after the correction phase of the market, from the middle of May until now, the symbols of the mentioned industries have been placed in cheap price ranges.

On the other hand, as mentioned before, the tangible reduction in the volume and value of transactions has caused index-making stocks to not have enough energy to move. This has provided an opportunity for small and medium market stocks.

Sunday stock forecast

Common ambiguities in the diplomatic environment as well as the economic decisions of policymakers have caused the process of money outflow and decrease in demand in the market to continue. However, in the Saturday market, per code (average of symbols), the real purchase per capita was around 22.0 million Tomans and the per capita sale was around 13.5 million Tomans.

This shows that the stock market has reached the point of value, but the systematic risks have caused the market people to continue trading in the stocks. Therefore, it seems that the Tehran Stock Exchange is accompanied by the equilibrium fluctuations of stocks during Sunday trading.

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