Stock market forecast for Wednesday March 3, 1401 / Capital market on the verge of explosive growth?

According to Tejarat News, Tuesday’s stock market transactions were a reminder of the bright days of the market, which rarely happened in the market after August 2019; Accordingly, the main index of the glass hall faced an increase of 65 thousand and 153 units, which is equivalent to 4.1% of this index. The total index stood at the level of 1 million 659 thousand units at the end of this day’s trading.

The equal weight index behaved in line with the total index but with less strength and reached the level of 507 thousand 74 units with an increase of 2.8 percent.

The board of the Tehran Stock Exchange shows the trading volume of 19 billion 110 million shares on Tuesday and the value of the transactions is 9 thousand 923 billion tomans.

Stock market lagging behind parallel markets

Hossein Meridsadat said in a conversation with Tejarat News: “In terms of inflationary components and attention to the survival of the capital market compared to parallel markets, every day can be considered a new floor for the market. If we compare the performance of the Tehran Stock Exchange compared to other markets in the last three years, this market is extremely stagnant.

He added: “It can be said that currently gold is traded at 60 to 70 thousand tomans per dollar, housing at 55 to 60 thousand tomans per dollar, but the stock market is still trading at 28 thousand 500 tomans per dollar.”

Has the main market growth started?

Some experts believed that the main growth of the market will occur when the restriction on the supply of companies’ currency with a fixed rate of the Nima dollar is removed. Considering that in the past days, the Central Bank’s decision to remove the Nima dollar and the supply of export dollars to companies became the agreed rate in the currency exchange system, has the time for the growth of the capital market and compensating for the lags come?

In response to this question, Hossein Meridsadat, a capital market expert, said: “The conditions of the total index from a technical point of view indicate that the fourth wave of market correction has ended and the fifth wave has begun.” The goal of this wave is the range of 1 million 750 thousand to 1 million 800 thousand total index units.

He added: “But there are a thousand and one factors influencing this growth; Among these components, it is possible to point out the type of portfolio arrangement of each capital market participant, which stocks he chooses in his portfolio; “At the same time, there are budgetary risks, the amount of bond sales by the government in the coming year, as well as systemic risks such as the untimely intervention of the Competition Council in the natural course of the market.”

This capital market expert stated: “For example, the risk that threatens the capital market right now is the whispers heard in the steel industry. “Apparently, the related institutions intend to inflict the same calamity that they inflicted on automobile manufacturers in the case of the sale of automobiles on the commodity exchange, and they were forced to hand over 85 percent of the price difference resulting from the sale of automobiles on the commodity exchange to the treasury of the Ministry of Interior, this time on the steelmakers.”

The growth of the market has been extremely sharp in these two days and most people did not get the opportunity to enter the desired stocks. Also, some market participants sat in queues to buy stocks for fear of being left behind by the growth of the market.

Regarding the correctness of this action in the current situation, Meridsadat said: “Staying out of the market will happen when the value of the transactions is above at least 12 thousand billion and most of the stocks are locked in the buying queue; Like last January when this happened. But today, the value of the transactions was 6 to 7 thousand billion, and the market will give those who decide to buy shares an opportunity to enter. Therefore, the feeling of survival from the market is emotional.”

Wednesday stock forecast

This capital market expert said: “In the Tuesday market, unfortunately, there was mismanagement by lawyers and they offered their shares strongly in the buying queues. The queue to buy large market stocks was released in a specific time frame and was clearly intentional. But on the other side of the market, there were also buyers, and it is expected that the market will be balanced tomorrow.”

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