Stock market forecast for Wednesday, September 1, 1402 / Will the total index’s technical support reach the market?
According to Tejarat News, the total index of the Tehran Stock Exchange returned to the green path on Monday. As it had a red beginning, August ended with a sharp drop of 18,203 points in the main indicator of the Glass Hall. The decrease in the height of the total index on the fourth day of the week was 0.93% and caused the August file to be closed with a negative return of 2.22%. But the shareholders believe that the value of the portfolios has depreciated much more than the decline of the index. Therefore, the long-standing issue of indexing stock players has again engaged the minds of stock market residents.
The balance index also moved with the total index command. In this way, the index of small and medium-sized companies of the market could not increase its height and reached the level of 663 thousand 221 units with a decrease of 1.63 percent. The balance chart shows a more realistic view of what happened to stock companies in August. At the end of the fifth month of the year, this index experienced a decrease of 36,720 units, equivalent to 5.25%.
rooting out the market’s inability to rise
Even though the numbers and stock indicators such as the P to S ratio, the forward P/E ratio, as well as the quarterly and monthly stock performance indicate that the current prices are valuable, but what has put the market in the predicament of decline is the negative flow of real money to is the market
To know this, it is enough to compare the value of small stock transactions before the beginning of the downward trend with the average value of small stock transactions in the last week. While on May 16, one day before the downward trend began, this stock market evaluation index was at levels higher than 25 thousand billion tomans, during the last week it barely reached the range above 4 thousand billion tomans.
Therefore, from the behavior of the market in August of this year, we can conclude that the high prices do not necessarily mean the start of an upward trend. Because changing the trend requires more factors. Inflow of money is the most important factor. When there is no money in a market, there will be no upward movement.
The flow of real money in the stock market will be positive only when the investment security index is evaluated high. Currently, successive bitter experiences of ill-considered and unexpected decisions have sent a lot of mistrust to the market.
Tehran Stock Exchange under the microscope of statistics and figures
The board of the Tehran Stock Exchange shows the volume of transactions on Tuesday at 6.8 billion shares and the value of transactions of shares, preemptive rights and mutual funds with a five percent decrease compared to Saturday, 3,536 billion tomans.
Investigating the ownership statistics of real people on this day indicates the withdrawal of real people’s capital from the stock market. The capital inflow and outflow index at the end of the second day of the week reports the outflow of 741 billion tomans from shares, preemptive rights and mutual funds.
Wednesday stock market forecast
During the last three months, the total index has reached the station of one million and 935 thousand units by losing support ranges one after another. Fibonacci correction drawn on the rising wave of the total index from the beginning of November last year to the middle of May this year shows that, this indicator is at the level of 38.2% of this tool.
Accordingly, it is expected that the behavior of the index will show a positive reaction to this important level of support. If this technical support is accompanied by pumping positive news about the capital market, a positive outlook can be drawn for the index. Otherwise, this level can play the role of housing for the index, and then one should expect the index to drop to the green box.
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