Stock market forecast in summer / What are the attractive industries of the stock market? – Tejarat News
According to Tejarat News, after the strong upward rally of the market that occurred during two movement lags and continued until the middle of May, the market has been undergoing an erosive correction process for some time. So that the average value of the transactions was 18 thousand billion tomans in April and the first half. May has reached 6.5 hemti at the current stage.
Identifying stock market risks
Ali Asari, a capital market expert, in a conversation with Tejarat News regarding the market risks due to the arrival of the summer season, said: “At the current stage, we can divide the market risks into two categories: mental risks and real risks. Real risks include economic instability and exchange rate fluctuations. “This can be considered as a major risk.”
Asari continued: “But the second risk that the market is facing these days is the risk of the market’s fear of the bitter experience of August 1999 and Mehr 1992.” “Both of them have been bloody parts of the market, and usually in the past years, this happened in the summer, and usually after the gatherings, we experienced a drop.”
He added: “However, considering that the EPS-based stocks, which are the backbone of the stock market, do not have that much profit, we can see these risks less and consider better conditions for the market in this respect.”
This capital market expert said: “I think socio-political risks and mental risks are two types of risks that can be mentioned as the main market risks in the coming weeks and months.”
Market leading industries in the summer season
Referring to the role of stock history in similar situations, Asari said: “In order to understand which industries will be the leaders, we must examine the previous leading industries. With a simple review, we can see that among the 20 stocks that have grown the most in different periods of one, three, six months and one year, single stocks that are not dependent on the growth of a specific group play the biggest role. It seems that shares that are less floating and have the ability to enter people and become so-called projects are still the best these days.”
He added: “In relation to potential industries, the automobile group can still be introduced as the market leader in the next wave of growth. Because this industry has formed the main body of the stock market in terms of volume. Also, according to that, Riyal groups can be good because there may be openings in the diplomatic positions of the country.”
Will the market return to its upward trend?
Asari added: “Unfortunately, the gatherings were not like previous years. Unlike every year, Iqbali was not focused on DPS meetings and stocks. According to these interpretations, we can predict that there may be fluctuations in the exchange rate in the coming months. Fluctuations of the type of correction that will reduce the rate of American bills. However, considering the monthly institutional inflation in the structure of the country’s economy, there is no expectation of such a drop, and it can naturally be considered a buying opportunity for the market.
He said: “It seems that the market conditions will definitely be much better in the second half of the year. Also, due to the upcoming parliamentary elections, this issue becomes more prominent. “According to the experience of the past years before the parliamentary elections, various groups, especially the Riyal Exchange groups, will have significant growth, which is expected to happen this year as well.”
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