Stock market forecast in the second half of the year

According to Tejarat News, the total stock index fell by about 8.5 percent this month, so that in the first half of 1400, the stock exchange had only a little more than 6 percent return for shareholders and remained ahead of its competitors.

The over-reaction of stockbrokers to uneconomic developments and the fear of a fall in the dollar exchange rate were among the most important reasons for stock survival among other investment options. Circumstances that caused in the first half of the year to witness the outflow of more than 22,000 billion tomans of real capital from the stock trading cycle.

what will it be?

You may also be wondering, given the events that have taken place in recent weeks that have led to a sharp drop in prices in the capital market, what is the path of progress in this market in the second six months?

Perhaps the best answer to this question can be summed up in two scenarios.

1- Borjam will be revived

First, in the current context, whispers from the political world indicate that there is a desire to reach an agreement to restore order in the new government.

Assuming that there is this mutual desire between Iran and the other parties to the IAEA, and that an agreement is likely to be reached on reviving the IAEA more than the other way around, we can expect a significant government budget deficit with significant foreign exchange inflows into Iran. Healing and therefore reducing the expected risks further cause inflation to decline in the second six months.

Naturally, in such a situation, the price of currency will go down and that is where the trading pattern in the stock market should be changed and shareholders should arrange according to the market variables and away from the excitement of the optimal portfolio to make maximum profit with minimal risk.

Although in such circumstances, one can not expect the Tehran Stock Exchange to be as high as 99 in the first months of the year and reach new heights with a rapid movement, but it is unlikely to expect the market to stagnate.

Naturally, in such circumstances, that is, reaching the same agreement on the parties’ adherence to the performance, the loss or non-loss of the shareholder, based on the nature of each company, manifests itself separately in performance reports or disclosures.

Earlier, it was noted that the revival of Borjam, although the fall of the dollar could be to the detriment of export-oriented companies, which have a high weight in the stock market value, but political and economic openings will ultimately benefit the companies. Openings that benefit not only export-oriented companies, but also domestic stocks, which are mainly importers of raw materials.

2- Borjam should not be revived

But the second scenario that can be considered is that there is no news of an agreement and the government budget deficit, as mentioned, will pave the way for more and more inflation expectations; Under such circumstances, the exchange rate naturally returns to an uptrend and raises the capital market, which is accustomed to rising inflation.

Of course, all this can be achieved by knowing that the most important factor that can be to the detriment of companies under any circumstances is legal risks, especially regulatory pricing, which in recent years has occasionally shown itself in various products and has caused investors even in Conditions where other factors are entirely in the interest of the stock market, to avoid the capacities of the capital market to operate as a transparent and inflationary shield.

Source: the world of economy

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