Stock Market Forecast Monday 10 February 1401 / Downward trend or natural correction of the market? – Tejarat News
According to Tejarat News, the Tehran Stock Exchange, which started the second week of February with a negative step, faced an increase in supply intensity today following this downward trend. During today’s trading, the total index of the stock market fell by 57,900 units.
While registering this decrease, the main viewer of the Glass Hall also lost its famous 1.6 million channel after only 20 days. On the other hand, the capital market equilibrium indicator failed to maintain its upward trend with the beginning of the eleventh month of the year.
The equal weight index of the Tehran Stock Exchange also decreased by 3.88%, another 19,562 units and left its channel of 500,000 units.
Investigating the real property ownership statistics of the capital market shows that during today’s transactions, the largest outflow of real money since the beginning of the year was 1,925 billion.
Has the market entered a downward phase?
Capital market expert Amir Ali Amir Baqeri said in a conversation with TejaratNews: After the recent growth that we had during the last month in the last few weeks, an intra-channel correction does not seem very unlikely from a technical point of view.
He added: But these reforms are usually discussed from a combined perspective, which is a combination of time reform and price reform; This means that the drop that we have seen since the first week of February until now mainly happens in a longer period of time and does not lead to the fear that has formed in the body of the market.
Amir Bagheri continued: On the other hand, after short-term growth, usually investors who intend to identify profit and hunt for the next opportunity sell; But in the medium and long term, for investors who have a view of investing in the stock market, the effect of all these events will be the size of a shadow in the candles, and naturally, the profit these investors earned from the market is basically not comparable to the daily and weekly fluctuations.
This capital market expert stated: As we can see in a retrospective analysis and a comparative study, in the past, there have always been events on the margins of the market, but they had an effect in the medium and long term.
The category of withdrawal of real money from the market
Some capital market experts have criticized the formula for calculating real money withdrawal; On the other hand, the real money inflow and outflow index, which is breaking the money outflow record these days, has increased the concern of shareholders.
In this regard, Amir Bagheri told TejaratNews: Some capital market activists calculate the outflow of money through a formula, which itself is highly debatable.
He added: Since the repetition of this matter has led to its being fixed in the stock market, it has become a source of fear for the market.
This capital market expert emphasized: selling real and buying rights has always existed in the capital market and alone is not a reason for trends to fail.
The effect of car stock market margins on the stock market
Will the story of selling cars in the stock market lead to the failure of the upward trend of the capital market due to the destruction of public trust?
In response to this question, Amir Bagheri said: No; The answer to this question can be examined from two perspectives. At first, from a technical point of view, it is arguable that after strong waves, the markets look confused for some time.
He added: This confusion of the market shows itself in the form of a side or range market. Therefore, it is natural that the market spent some time in recession after the fall of 1999 and 1400.
Amir Bagheri added: Naturally, during exiting the recession regime and entering the mid-term and long-term growth phase, there has always been this kind of stock exchange; Meanwhile, the news has only acted as a catalyst.
He stated: For example, one of the issues that brought fundamental pressure to the market is the issue of the budget deficit and the pressure that the budget will put on companies. For example, the feed rate can affect the profits of companies, but in the medium and long term, experience has shown that the main driver of the market is existing inflation and expected inflation.
This capital market expert stated: In any case, in the discussion of the inflation shield of the capital market, this will show itself both in the form of the profit and loss statement and in the form of the balance sheet, in the financial statements of the companies. Therefore, in the medium and long term, we are not worried about the capital market, but in the short term, these fluctuations are a natural thing that will be fueled by the news.
Monday stock market forecast
Amir Bagheri stated: Currently, several parameters have affected the capital market at the same time. One discussion is a technical look at the index, and in the second discussion we have news from the political field. Finally, there is the parameter of command pricing and leaving the competitive environment of the car from the stock market.
He continued: Monday’s market can move along today’s market to some extent; Of course, it is expected that over time, according to the current rates such as the exchange rate, which will in any case be a forecast of the expected inflation, the downward brake of the market will be pulled and the weight of the demand in the capital market will gradually increase.
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