Stock market forecast Monday, November 15, 1402 / The shadow of fear and hope in the stock market – Tejaratnews
According to Tejarat News, after the significant growth of the first day of the week, with the subsidence of the excitement of the Gaza war, on Sunday, more balance was felt in the flow of transactions. The decrease in the number of symbols that sat in the shopping queue or were placed near it also confirms this story.
In the middle of the market on Sunday, a letter was published by the Ministry of Petroleum, which quickly affected the trading flow. According to this letter, the price of feed gas for the month of September is 4,880 tomans per cubic meter. This letter, however, still leaves some doubts in the minds of the people of the capital market; Including what will be the rates of the previous months? On the other hand, the rate for the coming months has not been determined yet. The most likely scenario is that the September rate is used for the first five months of the year.
Despite the uncertainties that the letter sent by the Ministry of Oil brought with it, petrochemicals became the leader of today’s positive trend in the market. Also, the highest cash inflow among industries was also observed in the group of chemical products.
The performance of glass hall stock indices
The adventure of the total index at the levels below two million units, in the crisis caused by geopolitical inflammations, lasted for 6 working days. At the end of trading on Sunday, the main thermometer of the glass hall managed to regain the channel of two million units with a growth of 0.88%, equivalent to 17 thousand and 525 units from the height of this index. At the end, the total index was stopped at the level of 2 million 16 thousand 734 units.
The increase in the height of the main indicator of the glass hall happened while the equal weight index, which indicates the general price trend of small and medium-sized companies, registered a parallel performance. Equal weight index also increased by 0.88%, equivalent to 5,912 units, and reached 678,000 units.
The total OTC index, which reflects the general level of the stock prices of the companies present in the OTC, also reached 24,570 units with a growth of 0.54 percent, equivalent to 132 points from the height of this index.
Tehran Stock Exchange in the mirror of statistics
The board of the Tehran Stock Exchange showed the value of small transactions (stocks, preemptive rights and mutual funds) on Sunday at four thousand and 211 billion tomans. The value of transactions did not experience much change compared to Saturday. This issue reflects an important question mark in the minds of the people of the capital market. Why does the volume and value of transactions not continue despite the reduction of systematic risk and positive news regarding petrochemicals?
Placing the transaction value in the channel of four thousand billion tomans is still not enough to move towards the dynamics of the market. In general, until the evaluation index of Tehran Stock Exchange cannot be stabilized in the ranges above five hemats, it is not possible to draw a clear perspective for the stock market from the perspective of reading the table.
The board of Tehran Stock Exchange shows the trading volume of 6.8 billion shares on the second day of the week. Experts believe that the more the trading volume reaches higher levels in the current ranges of the total index, the clearer the vision of the new wave of the total index will be drawn in the minds of the shareholders. Because the arrival of fresh shareholders makes the way up smoother.
Also, checking the ownership statistics of real people on this day indicates the withdrawal of real people’s capital from the stock market. The index of capital inflows and outflows at the end of the stock exchange on Sunday reports the outflow of 35 billion tomans from shares, preemptive rights and equity funds.
Monday stock market forecast
The positive flow of the stock market, which originates from the announcement of the price of petrochemicals and also the reduction of the risk of the spread of war, has still failed to increase the volume and value of transactions. This will happen when the capital market looks attractive to investors against the risk-free rate of return.
The offer of risk-free profits at high rates by financing companies, fixed income funds and other institutions has made the stock market less attractive in the eyes of investors. On the other hand, the contractionary policies of the central bank, which can be called strict, fuel the lack of liquidity in the markets.
Previous contractionary policies have been implemented in other countries with the aim of controlling inflation and liquidity growth. Although this type of policy has been successful so far, it carries the risk of market stagnation, which will eventually lead to big jumps in the markets, including currency jumps.
Therefore, despite the strict contractionary policies, it seems unlikely to expect emotional growth from the market. But on the other hand, with the stock price moving away from the levels of the past weeks, it can be said that we will not witness a strong negative in the market. In this way, it is necessary to maintain the total index above the level of two million units in the coming days.
In relation to the forecast of the mid-day stock market in the third week of November, it can be expected that the people of the capital market will make decisions with more logic now, considering the waning of excitement related to the news related to the fading of the shadow of war. Therefore, it seems that the force of supply and demand in the Monday market is equal and the balance becomes the main color of the market map.
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