Stock market forecast Monday, October 3, 1402 / What are the necessary conditions for the stock market to return to an upward trend?
According to Tejarat News, the stock market experienced a severe recession last week, and two indicators of the stock market, namely, the value and volume of transactions, were at low levels. Also, as usual, we saw the outflow of cash.
The stock market passed the first day of autumn 1402, following the weak days of September, with the volume and value of transactions being low. The second half of the year started while Saturday was between Sunday and Friday, and there was no trending event in the trading flow. Nevertheless, the outlook of experts and people of the capital market is positive regarding the second 6 months of the year, and shareholders expect the start of the next upward market rally.
After the excitement subsided due to the pumping of positive news, such as the formulation of the feed rate of refineries and petrochemicals and the increase of the base rate of the dollar in the calculation of the base price of petrochemical and refining products in the commodity exchange, the market is in the phase of settling down.
From the point of view of experts, the positive point of these market days is to resist heavy negatives and stay within the current limits. But shareholders still expect an increase in the value of their portfolio. But what conditions are needed for the market to return to positive and strong days like the beginning of this year?
Conditions for the return of the stock market to an upward trend
The capital market is still involved in challenges and issues such as rumors about the automobile industry and their transfer, mandated pricing and problems of some industries in relation to the supply of equipment and raw materials and their energy issues. But the most important factor that had a great impact on the market last week was the tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This made traders to be more conservative.
On the other hand, the market is waiting for the pumping of other positive news, the lack of which has caused stagnation in transactions. Regarding the feed rate of petrochemicals, there are still buts and ifs. Also, the effects of the exchange rate on the base price of products in the commodity exchange have not been fully absorbed by the stock market.
The price of oil is in the range of $100, and experts expect that if this range is exceeded, positive effects will be seen in some industries, including refineries and petrochemicals. Therefore, these two groups are expected to take the leadership of the capital market and have positive effects on the overall market sentiment.
If the issues and rumors related to the automobile industry are resolved, it seems that this group also has a high potential to assume the role of market leader.
Considering the good performance of companies that have increased production and sales rate, it seems that the capital market has the potential to grow. In the meantime, it should be seen when the cash flow will enter the market, because with the injection of capital into the market, the value and volume of transactions will increase. With the increase of these two indicators, the market has become dynamic and can return to its upward trend.
The performance of the glass hall displays
At the end of trading on Saturday, the main thermometer of the glass hall decreased by 0.13%, equivalent to 2,850 units from the height of this index, to 2,118,000 units.
The decrease in the height of the main indicator of the glass hall happened while the equal weight index, which indicates the general price trend of all listed companies, registered a parallel performance and remained at a height of 721 thousand units with a decrease of only 10 units.
The general OTC index, which reflects the general level of the stock prices of the companies present in the OTC, dropped by 0.12% at the level of 26,187 units, so that this statistical measure, like other market indicators, ended Saturday with a happy ending.
Tehran Stock Exchange in the mirror of statistics
The board of the Tehran Stock Exchange showed the value of small transactions (stocks, preemptive rights and mutual funds) on Saturday at 3,413 billion tomans. This sharp decrease in the value of small transactions has reduced the possibility of the stock market rising again until the end of the week.
Experts believe that stabilizing this index above seven thousand billion tomans is necessary for the continuation of the positive trend of the stock market. The board of Tehran Stock Exchange shows the trading volume of 5.8 billion shares on the first trading day of the week.
Experts believe that the more the trading volume reaches higher levels in the current ranges of the total index, the clearer the vision of the new wave of the total index will be drawn in the minds of the shareholders. Because the entry of fresh shareholders will make the way up more smooth.
The investigation of the ownership statistics of real persons on Wednesday indicates the exit of real capital from the stock market. The index of capital inflows and outflows at the end of the stock market on Saturday reports the outflow of 128 billion tomans from shares, preemptive rights and mutual funds.
Monday stock market forecast
Considering what has been said and the conditions that are necessary for the stock market to return to the upward trend, regarding the forecast of the stock exchange in the middle of the week, it can be said that the flow of transactions seems to have a balanced and negative path ahead.
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