Stock market forecast today, October 5th
According to Tejarat News, Iman Raisi, a capital market expert, in a conversation with Tejarat News in the stock market forecast, said: “By stabilizing the price of 28,000 Tomans, the dollar exchange rate eliminates the risk of falling due to the decrease in the exchange rate.” Liquidity and inflation that we face daily are on the rise.
Raisi added: “What is clear is the low volume of transactions and the concern about the risk we are facing.” However, the companies’ reports and the liquidity turnover in different groups can show themselves in the shares of other groups, including the automobile and banking groups, in addition to the positive index in the coming week and the refining group, which has become a kind of market leader.
The situation of companies is deteriorating this year
Nima Javadian, a capital market expert, also said about the stock market trend in the current period: “We have six-month reports in front of the market, and currently these reports have the greatest impact on the market trend.” Despite the good reports of listed companies and their good sales, the market is trading in a negative bubble and the influencing factors have been ineffective.
Regarding the situation of listed companies next year, the expert said: “The government will pocket the industries next year due to its budget deficit and will collect more taxes from companies to compensate for its deficit, so according to these signals, the stock market will also improve.”
Javadian added: “There are whispers about rising energy prices.” This has been accompanied by the removal of hidden subsidies from industries, and has dealt a stronger blow to industries.
The world of economics wrote:
Monday’s trading, with a growth of about half a percent, brought the total stock index to the range of 1.484 million units. On this day, the news of the change in the refinery feed-in discount rate from 5% to $ 5 caused the refining symbols to face a significant jump in demand, and the outlook for the withdrawal of participants in the refinery fund supply is a little more positive than before.
The overall performance of the country’s stock market in trading on Monday was better than what we saw on the first day of the week, however, the relative improvement in the trading situation in this market did not cause the stock market index to grow more than half a percent. Accordingly, trading on Monday ended while the main indicator of the stock market at the time of the jump of 7900 units managed to advance 0.54 percent over the previous days. The performance was recorded for the stock market thermometer in a situation where the homogeneous index grew by about 0.6 percent on the same day, and although it could not record a completely different performance from the main indicator, however, its developments during the trading day. It was due to the fact that during Monday’s trading, the market was relatively more accepting of small symbols than large symbols.
As the name implies, this indicator is a weighted average of arithmetic prices in which the weight or share of each symbol in relation to the total market value is not taken into account. However, a review of what happened on Monday in the stock market, although it shows an improvement in trading conditions compared to the previous days, but still shows that the stock market is weaker than what we saw in the past month.
While before the last week of September, the total index was rising in a sloping manner and was able to increase from 1.595 million to 1.5 million units, now its weak progress in the channel of 1.4 million units of prosperity It is desirable that it can attract small investors to this market. Also, following the net trend of real purchases from the beginning of October until now indicates that in most of the past trading days, instead of money entering the capital market, it was taken out by individuals. The mentioned trend continued during Monday’s trading, so that 189 billion Tomans from the capital of real investors of Tehran Stock Exchange were excluded from the trading cycle of this market.
As has been noted many times in previous reports, in a situation where the inflow and outflow of money of real investors to the stock market is negative or its positive is so small that it can not be interpreted significantly, it can not be said that the trading environment In the stock market, it is favorable to raise prices. However, a closer look at the net change of ownership of the stock exchange industries, which together make up the same net net purchase ratio, clearly shows that during the day trading, the pharmaceutical group entered the trading cycle between groups with a figure of nearly 40 billion tomans. Who have been able to attract real liquidity on this day, has taken the first place. Other groups, such as banks, ventures, rubber and plastics, and electrical appliances, have succeeded in attracting real money by almost a large margin. However, perhaps the highlight of Monday’s trading was the positive impact of some of the symbols of the petroleum products group of multi-industry chemicals and banks, almost all of which, with the exception of the last group, saw the outflow of real money or in other words the transfer of shares from real to legal. They were.
Examination of the data contained in the information technology management site of the Tehran Stock Exchange on Monday indicates that the symbols “Fars”, “Shepna”, “Shebandar” and “Shasta” had the greatest effect on the total index of the stock exchange, followed by three symbols “Khodro”. , “WebSader” and “Webmelt” are located. Accordingly, the total stock index while sitting in the range of one million and 484 thousand units is waiting for the continuation of trading on the next trading day, of which 5 thousand and 363 billion tomans of trading value on this day, 4 thousand and 238 billion tomans was allocated to retail transactions.
A review and comparison of this figure and its peak in the summer of this year indicates that compared to the ceiling of the value of retail transactions, which had reached 11,000 billion tomans in the middle of summer, many ways must be traveled now to see the return of prosperity to the capital market. It is important to note, however, that statistical data over the past few months show a net increase in the asset value of investment funds. This indicates that part of the public presence in the stock market is indirectly pursued through these funds or other indirect investment instruments. Now we have to wait and see if in the continuation of the autumn trading 1400 stimuli will be formed in Iran’s economy or politics that can reverse this trend again and return the boom to small stock trading or not.