Stock Market Forecast Wednesday 12 October 1402 / Should shareholders wait for the growth of the market? – Tejarat News

According to Tejarat News, an important question that has occupied the minds of shareholders and people of the capital market is whether the temporary growth of the stock market has been enough to compensate for the backwardness of this market compared to parallel markets such as real estate, foreign exchange, and the car market.

After the fall of 1999, the stock market temporarily experienced waves of growth in the form of a larger suffering trend. The most noticeable upward wave began in November last year, during which the total index managed to cross its previous ceiling.

The passing of the total stock market index from its previous ceiling is also debatable. One of the audience of Tejarat News has compared the value of the high web market at the peak of 1999 and the current height of the total index. The market value of Hiweb company in the summer of 1999, when the total index reached a height of two million and 100 thousand units, was estimated at 17 thousand billion. Currently, the total index is at a similar height, but the market value of this company is seven thousand and 296 billion tomans! Meanwhile, the company’s profitability has experienced a 500% growth. Although the price of some stocks grew like a bubble in 1999, experts admit, this bubble was not as big as the market collapsed.

Such comparisons have also raised the suspicion of manipulation and indexation, which reduces the confidence of the people of the capital market. Trust that is the main capital of the stock market.

In the hope of compensating for the backwardness of the stock market value, shareholders start buying stocks when the growth starts, but the life of the upward trends is much more limited than to bring the market to its intrinsic value. For the last time, the stock market after its correction of more than 100 days since May 17, finally in September with the correction of the feed rate approval, its formulation and stability until the end of the seventh development plan, along with the news of the change in the exchange rate in the calculation of the base price of petrochemical products In the commodity exchange, it got a new life.

Under the influence of the positive sentiment of this news, the total index managed to register an increase of 217,000 points. The index was able to grow by 11% within two weeks and reach the channel of two million and 155 thousand units.

However, the life of this upward rally was limited to these two weeks, and after that the main indicator of the glass hall fell into a heavy recession phase. So that the value and volume of transactions as two indicators for evaluating the flow of transactions were placed at the level of three thousand billion tomans. But what was the reason for the loss of the rising frequency of the market?

A look at parallel markets may give an answer to this question. Where in other assets such as the dollar, which are considered the main driver of the market, stagnation has prevailed. During the last three months, the dollar penetrated the level of 50 thousand tomans three times, but failed to maintain this important psychological level. The decline in the transactions of other markets is also clearly visible, and experts believe that the decrease in inflation expectations due to the control policies of the Central Bank is the cause of the stagnation in the market.

The performance of the glass hall displays

At the end of trading on Monday, the main thermometer of the glass hall remained at the level of two million and 67 thousand with a small growth of 0.02%, equivalent to 373 units from the height of this index.

The decrease in the height of the main indicator of the glass hall happened while the equal weight index, which shows the general price trend of all small and medium-sized companies, registered a parallel but stronger performance and reached a height of 712,000 units with a growth of 2,291 units.

The total OTC index, which reflects the general level of the stock prices of the companies present in the OTC, stood at the level of 25,844 units with a growth of 0.24%, equivalent to 62 points from the height of this index.

During Monday’s trading, the status of the total index and the weighted index were significantly different from each other; The balance index can react sooner. Due to the positive movements in some individual stocks, the demand for medium and small stocks will probably increase in the second half of October.

Tehran Stock Exchange in the mirror of statistics

The board of Tehran Stock Exchange showed the value of small transactions (shares, preemptive rights and mutual funds) on Monday, 4.531 billion tomans. The value of transactions decreased compared to the level of the previous day. Placing the transaction value in the middle of the channel of four thousand billion tomans is still not enough to increase the market dynamics.

However, the value of small market transactions was acceptable in the first two days of the week. We saw green on Monday’s market map as demand for individual stocks increased, driven by revaluations and performance reports.

The board of Tehran Stock Exchange shows the trading volume of 7.5 billion shares on Monday. Experts believe that the more the trading volume reaches higher levels in the current ranges of the total index, the clearer the vision of the new wave of the total index will be drawn in the minds of the shareholders. Because the entry of fresh shareholders will make the way up more smooth.

Wednesday stock forecast

Oil futures fell to around $90 per barrel on Tuesday. On the other hand, with the strengthening of the dollar index and the weakening of commodities, the chances for a positive trading trend on the last day of the week will decrease.

However, we should not ignore the significant decrease in capital outflow. The capital inflow and outflow index at the end of Monday’s stock exchange reports the outflow of 27 billion tomans from shares, preemptive rights and mutual funds. This amount experienced a significant decrease compared to Sunday (not including the capital inflow through the subscription of Shagstar shares).

On the other side of the world, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said: Iran has a long way to go before returning to the JCPOA. Currently, the market spring is being compressed with new control policies implemented through price suppression. The implementation of these policies depends on the progress of the negotiations and the openness of the government in terms of foreign exchange resources.

Experts believe that if something unexpected happens in relation to the government’s readiness to implement such policies, we should wait for the release of the market spring and the start of the currency jump, and as a result, the Tehran Stock Exchange and other markets.

Read more reports on the capital market page.