Stock market forecast Wednesday, February 26, 1401 / Iran’s economy is on the edge of the ownership crisis

According to Tejarat News, today’s stock market transactions took place while the total index moved in the opposite direction of the previous day; Accordingly, the main index of the glass hall faced a drop of 10,313 units, which is equivalent to 0.7% of this index. Based on this, the total index stood at the level of 1 million 537 thousand units at the end of today’s trading.

The total weighted index behaved in line with the total index and reached the level of 479 thousand 389 units with a decrease of 0.7 percent.

Also, the board of the Tehran Stock Exchange shows the volume of today’s transactions at 6.870 billion and the value of transactions at 3.212 billion tomans. Investigating the ownership statistics of real people also indicates the withdrawal of real people’s capital from the stock market. The capital inflow and outflow index at the end of today’s stock exchange reports that 503 billion tomans of money was withdrawn from the stock exchange.

Divergence between the capital market and the dollar

At the beginning of this week, the free dollar rate managed to break its historical ceiling with its slow growth. At the same time, the yield of the capital market this week until the end of the market on Tuesday was more than one percent on the negative side.

In this regard, Alireza Atreman, a capital market expert, told Tejarat News: If we want to look at the past, there were times when the dollar grew but the capital market was falling. Now, however, the reasons for this are clear. These talks are more for the sympathizers of the country. I don’t even use the word capital market sympathizers. Because it is considered a big risk for the country. We hope that unwise, irrational, unscientific and unfair decisions will be corrected.

The role of the government in creating a property crisis

Emphasizing the current Achilles’ heel of the capital market and the economy, the independent stated: the decisions that have led the market to this point have been based on three main issues.

He added: At first, the mandated stabilization of the exchange rate was 28,500 tomans, which is clearly reminiscent of the 4,200 toman currency known as the Jahangiri currency in the twelfth government in Farvardin 1997. That unsuccessful experiment lasted only three to four months, after which Hemmati invented the Nima currency. This policy adopted by the central bank created a balance in the foreign exchange market and provided the required currency for the importer. Although, in the future, the Nima currency was distanced from the free market. Normally, in healthy conditions, the Nima exchange rate should be the same as the free dollar rate or at least 5% different from it.

The independent stated: The next issue is the decision of the Parliament’s Budget Bill Consolidation Commission to receive 85% of the difference between the base rate and the discovered rate in the commodity exchange. This event is considered as a big risk for the capital market.

This expert continued: The next event, which is not classified in the policy section, but on the other hand, can start the potential of similar risks in the market, is the fine of Bahman Motor Company in the amount of 14 thousand billion tomans. This amount is 15 times the net profit that the company made last year.

He added: The outcome of these cases has put the capital market on the brink of a property crisis. The crisis of ownership means that you, as the owner of a company, have almost no role not in the optimal management but in even the management of your company.

This expert said: More specifically, the issue is that the government imposed on the manufacturer, you have no right to interfere or make a reasonable decision about the selling price of products or the exchange rate for the export of the company’s products. For example, in the automobile industry, even if the production of automobiles is loss-making, the manufacturer is forced to sell at the same rate.

The independent further stated: The worse decision is that in the conditions of sanctions and inflation that currently govern the country’s economy, as a result of the government’s decisions, stray liquidity has entered the car market and other parallel markets such as the dollar and gold.

He emphasized: Finally, the ownership crisis must be solved by the government and there is no other way. Because if there is to be economic growth and provision of people’s livelihood and increase of people’s welfare, there is no solution except to support the investor, and that too in the current situation where investment is not except for the domestic investor.

Stock forecast

Regarding the prediction of the stock market in the coming months, the independent said: In the short term, the capital market will once again be a shelter for stray liquidity and will give good returns to shareholders, although it does not seem that this return will be more than the return of the dollar.

In the end and in connection with tomorrow’s market, this expert said: In order to predict Wednesday’s market, it is likely to continue its downward trend due to the upcoming holidays. But in the coming week, the market conditions will be relatively balanced.

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