Stock market forecast Wednesday, July 14, 1402 / logic prevails over excitement in the stock market – Tejaratnews

According to Tejarat News, Tehran Stock Exchange is increasing its distance from the August 1999 ceiling with its consecutive growth in the last three days. As this distance increases, the probability of some market participants’ expectation of a pullback of the total index to the range of the 1999 ceiling becomes weaker. Also, the possibility of the scenario of the next kinetic wave of the total index is strengthened.

The rising bar of the total index continued to higher levels on Tuesday. The main index of the glass hall faced an increase of 18,695 units, which is equivalent to 0.86 percent of this index. Accordingly, the total index stood at the level of two million and 202 thousand units at the end of Tuesday trading. Also, the equal weight index behaved in line with the total index and reached the level of 773 thousand 298 units with a growth of 1.3 percent.

With the passage of time, the flow of demand went through an increasing trend until the middle of the trading period. In the middle, the slope of the market trend was slightly downward.

Tehran Stock Exchange under the microscope of statistics and figures

The board of the Tehran Stock Exchange shows the volume of Tuesday’s transactions at 12 billion 500 million shares and the value of small transactions at 10 thousand 255 billion 300 million Tomans. The increase in the volume and value of transactions compared to the previous days has made the recent growth more valid.

However, the investigation of the ownership statistics of real people indicates the withdrawal of real people’s capital from the stock market. The capital inflow and outflow index at the end of Tuesday’s stock exchange reports the outflow of 422 billion and 400 million tomans from shares, preemptive rights and equity funds.

The increase in the value of the transactions along with the increase in the outflow of money from the stock market shows that a large part of people consider the current growth as an opportunity to exit.

Systematic risk, the most important threat to the market

Numerous announcements and confirmations and denials about various issues, including petrochemical feed rates, which is the latest example of uncertainties in the market, have become one of the repeated and bitter cases of the market for shareholders.

The risk of the government’s economic decisions is a systematic risk that threatens investment in the stock market. It was yesterday that the 40% increase in the feed rate and the 100% increase in the gas rate of petrochemical industries were officially approved. It should also be kept in mind that the price of food is seven thousand tomans without tax.

Reactions from the stock exchange organization as well as petrochemical companies that took place in the past days were able to reduce the excitement of the negative shock to some extent. However, with the implementation of this resolution, we should witness the marginalization of methanol groups and urea manufacturers.

However, it seems that with the passing of a week after the feed rate hike, which sent a strong negative shock to the market, rational decisions have increased in the stock market, and the groups that had reached favorable prices faced increased demand.

Wednesday stock forecast

The main indicator of the glass hall has been at its correction level of 23.6% Fibonacci for some time. In the previous report, it was mentioned that if the total index can cross the ceiling of its range of two million and 189 thousand units, it has the potential to advance to the higher ceilings of the corrective trend (marked with a red circle).

Currently, the total index has crossed the ceiling of two million and 189 thousand units and has set higher goals in its crosshairs.

In this analysis, it was checked that drawing a behavior line for the minor roofs built in the recent correction process shows another positive signal for the shareholders. With the closing of the total index candle at the end of Monday’s trading, the aforementioned behavior line has been broken.

In the meantime, we should not ignore the fact that the upper shadow of Tuesday’s candle indicates the slight weakness of buyers and the emergence of sellers. Therefore, in line with the prediction of the stock market on the last day of the week, what is likely is more balance of the market on both sides of the balance of supply and demand.

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