Stock market forecast Wednesday, May 27, 1402 / Is the correction wave of the total index over?

According to Tejarat News, the total stock market index reached 2,301,000 units after growing 15,475 units on Monday. On the other hand, the equal weight index stood at 752,441 units with a growth of 3,463 units.

In the meantime, the dollar value of the market, which had decreased by 20 billion dollars during the correction process last week, was in the range of 282 billion dollars at the end of the trading flow on Monday.

The stock market through the lens of statistics

The board of the Tehran Stock Exchange shows the volume of Monday’s transactions at 20.570 billion and the value of small transactions at 12.223 billion tomans.

Investigating the ownership statistics of real people indicates a small outflow of real capital on the market balance day. The capital inflow and outflow index at the end of Monday’s stock exchange reports the outflow of 232 billion tomans of money from the stock exchange.

The main factor of the positive outlook in the capital market

It must be accepted that the trend started from the beginning of November last year is considered to be a sharp upward trend. For this reason, especially after the strengthening of this wave in April and May, the people of the capital market expected a correction in the market.
Although doubts were raised regarding the downward trend of last week’s supply, it seems that the market was waiting for a correction. In the long run, such reforms will be beneficial for the long-term trend of the stock market, provided that the conditions are not mandatory.

The news that came out after the trading period of the last negative day of the market, Saturday, including two resolutions to deposit 500 billion tomans to the capital market stabilization fund account, increasing the time to correct the portfolio of fixed income funds and increasing the credit ratio helped the market return. But the main reason for the return of buyers to the stock market was the report of the companies, which exceeded the expectations of the market people, and people hoped for the performance of the next reports.

On the other hand, macroeconomic parameters of the country such as exchange rate and inflation did not change significantly. In this regard, the inflation in the country’s economy has caused industries such as Khodro Group, Kundushkar and some pharmaceutical companies to increase the price of their products in the same period of two months that have passed since 1402.

On the other hand, in the global economy, expectations are towards stopping the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. This eventually leads to an increase in commodity prices and their stabilization at higher prices. In this case, P/E Forward of Tehran Stock Exchange will be adjusted and the capital market will be more valuable than before.

Wednesday stock forecast

Nevertheless, it is not possible to definitively consider the correction of the total index as finished. In Monday’s market, the supply continued, and as we have seen, the outflow of money, albeit small, has resumed.

But according to what we reviewed, there is no particular concern about the long-term trend of the market. If the supply wave continues in the coming days, we can expect the market to balance somewhere between the channel of 2.1 to 2.2 million units.

Regarding the forecast of the stock market at the end of the week, experts believe that stocks will continue to change hands and the market will be accompanied by fluctuations, especially in index-making stocks.