stock market prediction, Saturday, July 3, 1402/ Will the stock market heat up in the summer? – Tejarat News

According to Tejarat News, Tehran Stock Exchange passed the first quarter of the year. A season that had two completely different halves for shareholders. In the period after the Nowruz holiday until the middle of May, the stock market had a strong rally.

The process that many believed has started to make up for the two and a half year delay and has no intention of stopping. From May 17 and the beginning of the market’s margins, the market was hardly happy with the flow of letters that quickly spread from hand to hand in the virtual space.

In the meantime, the reports of the companies were not uniform as expected and despite the excellent performance of some companies, another group performed much weaker than expected.

Also, the decrease in the dollar rate and the consequent decrease in inflationary expectations of the people made the capital market lose its power to continue the upward trend.

However, there are situations where the stock market can return to its stable upward trend and provide its investors with higher returns than the parallel markets.

The uncertainty of the stock market in the shadow of the diplomatic atmosphere

In just a month and a half, all the expectations regarding the sharp growth of the capital market have turned around. As most experts believe, there will be no serious growth in the capital market this summer. But what is the reason for this divergence between opinions in a short period of time?

The root of changes in forecasts should be found in changes in inflation expectations. About two months ago, the possibility of revitalizing the JCPOA or a new form of agreement was considered very little in the diplomatic atmosphere of the country, but after that, with the visit of the Sultan of Oman to Tehran and his role as a mediator, slightly different conditions and positive news of the negotiations were published.

However, the positive news resulting from the negotiations was violated many times so that the shareholders were plunged into uncertainty. During this period, the market is generally still and has taken small positive or negative steps.

The latest news seems to indicate that the parties are getting closer to an agreement. In an interview with CNN, the US Secretary of State said: America and Iran have reached a series of agreements regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Based on this, it should be seen whether an agreement will be reached or whether the uncertainty will continue.

In general, the expectations regarding the growth of the capital market in the summer of this year have decreased. However, the market can grow in two ways. First, returning to the agreement definitively or disrupting the negotiation table, in which case the dollar will probably have a sudden jump towards its ceiling of 60,000 tomans.

Saturday stock market forecast

On the last trading day of the market, the stock market increased by 6,940 units, which is equivalent to 0.32% of the total index. Based on this, the total index stood at the level of two million and 173 thousand units at the end of trading on Wednesday.

Also, the equal weight index behaved in line with the total index and reached the level of 746 thousand 134 units with a growth of 0.98 percent.

On the other hand, in the statistics section of the Tehran Stock Exchange, the volume of today’s transactions is 9.9 billion and the value of transactions is 6.620 billion tomans.

The decrease in the movement range of transaction value from an average of 18 to 20 thousand billion tomans per day to the corridor of 6 thousand billion is also due to the uncertainties in the market, which prevents the investor from reaching certainty for investing in the stock market or other parallel markets.

However, it is expected that the capital market will start trading with a little selling pressure during tomorrow’s trading, and then balance will prevail in the market with the growth of demand. Meanwhile, all eyes will be on Ferdowsi Square transactions and any changes in the exchange rate of the dollar and rial will have a direct impact on the trading process of the stock market on Saturday.

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