Stock market prediction Sunday 22nd August 1402 / The red face of the market on the anniversary of the historic fall of the stock market
According to Tejarat News, on the third anniversary of the historic fall of the stock market in the summer of 1999, Tehran Stock Exchange refreshed the memory of those days for the shareholders by reducing the total index by 47 thousand points. In response to the 1.02% drop in the American bill, the Tehran Stock Exchange shed 2.32% to lose its two million channel once again.
On the other hand, the equal-weight total index was in line with the total index and more strongly represented the selling waves in the stock market. This index dropped by 19,295 units, which was equivalent to 2.71% of this index, and reached the range of 693,000 units.
With the fall of the stock market today, the dollar value of the capital market reached 181 billion dollars. The cap of the dollar value of the stock market this year is 223 billion dollars. This means a drop of more than 18% in the dollar value of the Tehran Stock Exchange.
Tehran Stock Exchange under the microscope of statistics and figures
The board of the Tehran Stock Exchange shows the trading volume of 8.6 billion shares on Saturday and the value of trading shares, preemptive rights and mutual funds with a slight increase compared to Wednesday last week at 4,796 billion tomans.
With the fall of the total index, the reception of real estates in the stock market decreased. So that the investigation of the ownership statistics of real people today indicates a heavy withdrawal of real capital from the stock market. The capital inflow and outflow index at the end of today’s stock exchange reports the outflow of 1,369 billion tomans from shares, preemptive rights and equity funds.
Intensification of negative market sentiments
The main reason for the fall of the total forecast index is the possibility of continued decline in the value of American bills in the open market. The news of the agreement between Iran and the United States for the exchange of prisoners and also the release of 6 billion dollars of Iran’s blocked money in South Korea reduced the prospects of the dollar among traders in Ferdowsi Square.
But the point that needs to be taken into account is that most of the listed companies and industries finance their production costs and current costs based on the free exchange rate. This means that the finished price of the product is free currency. Therefore, with the decrease in the exchange rate, the production and current costs of the company will decrease.
On the other hand, considering the stability of the exchange rate in the NIMA system, along with the lack of noticeable drop in the price of commodities, companies that are export-oriented or in other words currency gainers, it is an analytical mistake to relate the market decline to the drop in the exchange rate. Therefore, it can be concluded that the drop of 2.32% of the total index is evaluated against the drop of 1.02% of the emotional behavioral dollar.
Experts believe that emotions have a temporary effect and sooner or later their effectiveness will seriously decrease. However, it cannot be denied that a form of valuation of companies and industries is based on dollars. On the other hand, fundamental factors, including structural inflation in the country’s economy, which paints an upward outlook for the dollar, will guide long-term trends.
Sunday stock forecast
According to the announcement of the Central Bank, the interbank interest rate increased by 0.05 percent this week and reached 23.5 percent. Although the increase in the interbank interest rate is an important tool to control inflation, in the short term, it ends up at the expense of the stock market. In the rest of the week, the most important news affecting the market is the government’s response to the objection of the Board of Implementation of Laws and Approvals.
Shareholders and people of the capital market carefully follow the changes and developments in this field. As it is clear from the news, the initial talk is about a 30% discount for methanol makers. If the reforms are accepted by the government, we can expect a big turn in the capital market process.
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