Stock market weekly forecast / liquidity is the only way to save the capital market

According to Tejarat News, the total index Exchange Last Wednesday, it was on the number of 1 million 443 thousand units and this week it reached the level of 1 million 437 thousand units. The index finally recorded a 0.42% drop.

Sara Fallah, a capital market analyst, told Tejarat News: One of the most important events in the stock market last week was the entry of some automobile products into the stock market. An event that is positive and good for car manufacturers and, on the other hand, leads the country’s economy as a whole to clarify and eliminate rents. This news took a lot of selling pressure in the market.

He explained: The second most important issue this week was the financial statement of the Market Stabilization Fund. This financial statement showed that the fund was able to make a good profit in the years 99 and 1400. This profit making has two points. First, making a profit means buying at the bottom and selling at the top. As a result, the expectation from the stabilization fund was implemented well. It means that the fund bought on negative days and sold on positive days. But one point that concerns the mind is where the purchase was made during these drops?

Improper purchase of stabilization fund

This capital market analyst explained: The market stabilization fund is expected to buy in the first days of the fall and to prevent the fall to some extent. The minimum task is to remove the poison of the sellers and the fear prevailing in the market so that in the future they will also buy big rights. As a result, the positive atmosphere will gradually return so that real people will decide to buy.

Fallah continued: But for this profit, the suspicion has arisen that the fund made purchases in the last days and at the bottom of the market. In fact, in the early days, he did not do anything to stop this amount of fall. Of course, access to more information is necessary to understand this issue. But what can be seen now is that the market stabilization fund has not yet taken action and does not provide support for the market balance. While basically one of the goals of forming this fund is to support the market in negative and bearish days.

He explained: The only way out of this crisis is liquidity. Because most of the shares in the market have reached valuable points and the market P/E is in an attractive range for buying. As a result, the problem is not in the prices, but the lack of liquidity is the biggest challenge of the stock market. This week, we saw that the value of small stock transactions fell below two hemats, which shows the crisis in the market.

Prediction of the stock market next week

Fallah said: One of the most important news next week is the new round of negotiations, which has been postponed until after Ashura and Tasua. Based on this, JCPOA industries can be affected by this news.

He added: “In the last days of this week, sales pressure decreased, and this issue can be seen in the process of transactions and the value of shopping queues, where sellers have retreated.” Next week, due to the holiday, there are only three working days, and we will probably have a low-volume and balanced week ahead.

Technical view of total index and equal weight index

This capital market analyst explained: the overall trend in the total index is downward. But as we said last week, there are signs of an upward correction in the downtrend. The price hit the bottom of the short-term descending channel and reacted to it. ERASI managed to reach above the level of 30, which indicates that the pressure of the sellers has decreased.

He added: According to Ichimoku, the cloud of the future is red. The price is below Tenkansen and Tenkansen is also below Kijonsen, all of which indicate a dominant downward trend. But now the distance between Price and Kijonsen is somewhat more. We expect that the price will have a slight upward correction to the range of 1450 thousand to 1470 thousand units.

In the end, Fallah said: The situation is the same in the weight index. The dominant trend will be downward, but there are signs of short-term correction. Both MFI and ARAS were able to reach above the oversold range. If we use the Ichimoku trading system, we can see that the price is far from the Tenkansen. Therefore, a slight correction in this index is not far from expected, and it will probably have a short growth up to the range of 400,000 units.

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