Stock market weekly forecast / What factors affect the capital market?
According to Tejarat News, the total index of the stock market last Wednesday was at 1,448,000 units, and this week it reached 1,451,000 units, recording a lower growth of 0.21%.
Sara Fallah, a capital market analyst, told Tejarat News: August started with an index of 1474 thousand units and ended with an index of 1451 thousand units. In fact, there was no noticeable change in the total index. But this week, according to what we predicted last week, the market revolved around the news of negotiations.
He continues: At the beginning of the week, we saw buying excitement and optimism in the stock market. But the negativity of the following days destroyed this optimism and left the market behind for almost a week. But the important thing in these market days is the difference between the gender of the buyer and the seller in the market. The person who buys enters the market with little capital and cautiously, but the sellers have the upper hand and sell more strongly.
This capital market analyst emphasizes: This means that the power of the market is still in the hands of the sellers and any positive suffering will be reversed very quickly. But seeing the market this week, we can at least say that the intensity of the decline has decreased. Also, the stock market is in the transition phase, which means that the shares are changing hands, and the increase in the volume of transactions this week compared to the monthly average is an emphasis on this issue.
What is the effect of JCPOA on the stock market?
Fallah explains: Currently, the stock market is facing three serious scenarios. If JCPOA happens, the whole market will grow with the leadership of JCPOA groups like Bank Khodro Transport. Because it is predicted that the free dollar will drop in price to the range of 28-29 thousand tomans. But let’s not see any change in the semi-dollar, and the reduction of the difference between the free currency and the semi-currency is in favor of stock market issuers.
He explains: If the negotiations lead to failure, the systematic risk in the market will increase. Also, funds will go towards risk-averse investment methods such as gold. Because the situation of sanctions will get worse and the macro economy will face more shortage of foreign exchange resources and all this is to the detriment of the capital market.
Referring to the third scenario of the capital market, this capital market analyst says: the negotiations will continue in their current form and will have neither positive nor negative results. In this case, the market becomes sideways and each industry moves according to its fundamental and sentimental conditions. So if you plan to modify your portfolio in this phase of the market.
Stock forecast next week
Fallah continues: the news of negotiations is still hot and it can be the most important factor in the market for the next week. But if we don’t have new and impactful news; We expect the week to start on a positive note. But at the end of the week, we will see the intensity of the supply and it will be balanced throughout the week.
Technical analysis of the total index
He explained: The dominant trend in the overall index is still the downward trend. However, there are signs of the end of the process and the reduction of its intensity. RSI and MFI indicators are in the range of 50 level; It means that the market is in the phase of indecision and balance. If we check from the perspective of Ichimoku, we can see that the price is between Tenkansen and Kijonsen and there is a little distance from both of them.
This capital market expert explained: This means that the market is at a balance point and the future movements of the total index should be monitored more carefully. If the price manages to establish itself above the Kijonsen, the alignment of the Kijonin and Tenkansen will form a strong support zone for the stock. We expect that the price of Aber Kumo will increase to a certain extent, i.e. around 1500 to 1520 thousand
Balance index analysis
Referring to the equal weight index, he states: the equal weight index has similar conditions. The price has reached the ceiling of its short-term descending channel. But the RSI and MFI indicators show the balance in the market. As a result, there is a possibility of breaking the roof of the descending channel. However, the market is in an indecisive phase and future price movements in this index are as important as the overall index.
Fallah says: the ratio of equal weight index to total index is also important. Whenever this graph goes up, it is a sign that the condition of the equal weight index is better than the total index and vice versa. At the moment, we expect an upward trend in this chart, so we predict that next week the situation of small and medium stocks will be better than large stocks.
The important point here is that this analysis was recorded at the end of the market on Wednesday, August 26, and any change in the news until Saturday can affect this forecast.