Stock market weekly forecast / which stock market index will grow?

According to Tejarat News, the total stock market index in the past week reached the level of 1.513 million units and recorded a drop of 1.3%.

Sara Fallah, a capital market analyst, said in a conversation with Tejarat News: The second week of July also ended with a negative return. The total index recorded a negative return of one percent. The equal weight index had a negative return of 0.7%. The value of short-term stocks was low this week, indicating that this drop is a correction in a long-term bullish trend. However, we still believe that the market trend is bearish in the medium term and the time for the end of the correction has not yet come.

He continued: The most important news this week was the news related to the negotiations. Before this, the market was red-faced with any positive news about the unified JCPOA, and in a way, the market’s quick and short-term reaction was that the market will also fall due to the decrease of the dollar. But now the paradigm has changed. Because the stock market did not grow with the growth of the dollar from 26 tomans to 32 tomans and it was calculated with half a dollar. If the deal happens, with the drop of the dollar, you can see up to 26-28 thousand tomans, and as a result, it will not have a negative effect on our market. Even this makes the gap between the free dollar and the nima, which is currently around 20%, smaller, which is in favor of the capital market.

What factors affect the stock market?

This capital market analyst explained: On the other hand, with the JCPOA and the lifting of sanctions, we will have very positive effects in the market. From opening the hand of the government to infrastructure projects to increasing the volume of exports and reducing the cost of financial transactions of companies. With the increase in export prices, many companies are now forced to give high discounts. But overall, JCPOA has positive effects for dollar industries and rial industries in the stock market.

Referring to the parallel markets, Falah said: Yesterday, the Central Bank’s new housing report came out and it showed that the price bubble in the housing market has become bigger. Each meter of the house reached 40 million tomans on average, and this may seem difficult for capital market shareholders to watch the growth of parallel markets. However, if our market does not grow, it actually shows how much the stock market lags behind inflation and has a good hidden potential.

He continued: In previous years, with the growth of inflation, the stock market also grew with a phase delay. But this year, due to changes in macro policies, inflation will eat more of the company’s profits. Of course, we have to wait for the 12-month reports, but it seems that the net profit margin of the companies is lower than before. Of course, this does not mean that companies will be left behind by inflation, but they will start their growth with a little delay.

Which is the cheapest investment market?

Fallah explained: In June, the point-by-point inflation hit its historical record and the annual inflation reached about 50%. This means that maintaining liquidity and buying debt securities or fixed income funds is riskier than any asset, and the real profit that will accrue to these people. This profit becomes minus 30% per year, not as much as the nominal profit of 20%. Therefore, it is better to keep any type of asset than Rial, and among the markets, the stock market is the cheapest.

Referring to the influencing factors on the market, this capital market analyst said: The company’s monthly report has an effect on the market. At least the companies do not have problems in terms of sales, but for the final price, you have to wait for the quarterly reports. For refiners, we are waiting for good quarterly reports, and with the positive outlook of global oil prices, this group can be one of the most attractive groups.

He stated: The market still has fears about global prices. In the last two weeks, we did not see a good week in the global commodity market, but we hope to see relative stability in prices this week.

Technical analysis of the total index

Fallah explained: We are witnessing a medium-term downward trend in the overall index. The peaks and valleys are placed at a lower level one after the other. RSI and MFI both show the superiority of selling power over buying power. Of course, this week the index showed a positive reaction to the range of psychological support of 1500 thousand units, but due to the strong downward step, it is expected that the index will have a corrective support of 1450 thousand units.

He continued: If we look at the overall index from the perspective of Ichimoku, we can see that it shows the position of the Tenkansen Kijonsen and the price of the downward trend. The price had a pullback after entering the Cuomo cloud range. But with the price hitting Tenkansen, we expect the correction to continue until the lower range of the Como cloud, i.e. the range of 1450 thousand units.

Analysis of the equal weight index of the stock market

This capital market analyst stated: Fortunately, the equal weight index has maintained its important support of 420 thousand units and has shown a positive reaction to it. Although the dominant trend shows the correction, RSI and MFI indicators are in the neutral range and it shows the equality of buying and selling power. It seems that a small news and a spark of hope can end the correction for the equal weight index. be But if the market continues to be in doubt and despair, we expect correction to the range of 400,000 units, which is the 38% Fibonacci support range.

Finally, Fallah said: The ratio of the total index to the equal weight index shows the superiority of small and medium market shares over large shares. Therefore, for the next week, we predict that the market will have a negative and close to balanced return, and the return of small and medium shares of the market will be better than large shares.

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