Stock market weekly forecast / Will the stock market trend decline?

According to Tejarat News, the total index of the stock market was at 1,442,000 units last Wednesday, and this week it reached 1,439,000 units and recorded a 0.21% lower drop. Despite the drop of the total index, the equal weighted index registered a growth of 0.89% and reached the range of 411 thousand units. The over-the-counter market also had a slight decrease and with a 0.06% drop, it was able to stabilize the situation compared to the last week.

Sara Fallah, a capital market analyst, told Tejarat News: This week the market was confused and indecisive. The total index dropped by nearly one percent and there was no sign of an increase in the volume of small stock transactions. The value of shares and preemptive rights is close to its 5-day and 22-day averages. This shows that the market has not yet decided to enter a new phase.

He continued: According to the past weeks, the market is listening to the news of the JCPOA. As the announcement of the decisions of both sides of the negotiation approaches, there are more rumors, which naturally have an emotional and fleeting effect on the market, and only those who intend to fluctuate for a few days give weight to these rumors, and other traders with other investment horizons should be aware of these noises. ignore

Magenta reopening in the capital market

Referring to the situation of the week, this stock market expert said: Persepolis symbol was reopened this week. The market value of two symbols, namely Esteghlal and Persepolis, and their prices are a bit high, and for investment, you should wait a little while until they become more balanced. The type of analysis of these two symbols is different, it is a new industry and like every industry, it has its own method. For example, the method of analysis of products is different from a refinery to a bank. These two symbols have different methods of analysis.

Fallah continued: Another important news is about the fluctuation range of 7%. This issue leads the market to become more analytical and away from excitement. We will mostly witness that one symbol has a price drop without a queue and another symbol grows without a queue to buy.

He explained: As a result, the role of analysis becomes more prominent. But on the other hand, our market is very far from an efficient market. Although no market in the world is fully efficient, our market is far from efficient. Information is not properly available to everyone and there is a rent. This issue has more destructive effects with the increase of the fluctuation range, or in other words, more rights of the shareholders are lost without rent, which we hope that with the increase of the fluctuation range, the government’s supervision of the publishers and certain market participants will increase.

Fallah explained: Of course, we are against the closure of the symbol due to the suspicion of manipulation. An incident that has been seen many times in the market. If there is a suspicion of tampering with a symbol, the violator should be dealt with seriously, not that all the shareholders of that symbol, whether small or large, real or legal, are deprived from trading their assets.

This capital market expert emphasized: We must accept that our stock market is a nascent market and it takes time to reach maturity.

The state of global markets

Referring to global markets, Falah said: China has once again announced a lockdown in some cities under the pretext of Covid, which causes production to decrease. Apparently, in the last 4 months of this year, steel production plans to compensate for some of the price drop. Because the dollar index has had an unprecedented increase, which has caused a decline and stagnation in commodities.
He continued: This policy of China can partially compensate for this drop.

Fallah stated: Since Wednesday, the supply of gas from Serif Nord Stream 1 to Europe has been completely closed. Russia has claimed that this issue is only for a few days and due to repairs. Because there is no embargo on parts and repairs take a little time, but European experts have rejected this claim and say that there is no breakdown at all and this is an excuse for Russia to completely shut off gas to Europe.

This capital market expert said: lack of gas in Europe seriously damages the agricultural sector and can increase the price of urea. As a result, we expect the price of urea to grow.

He explained: The news of the negotiations and the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs to Russia is important and influential. If important and reliable news does not come, we predict that the market will be in an indecisive phase. The value of transactions decreases and becomes weak.

Technical analysis of the total index

This capital market expert said: The expectation of the JCPOA among the activists has shown itself well in the overall index. The medium-term trend is bearish. But for a short time it is enclosed between two ranges of 1420 and 1470.

He continued: As we said before, we are waiting for the formation of the Sowing Filler pattern in the RSI indicator. Every time he breaks level 50 upwards, the pattern is complete. He once had a level 50 attack that he failed to pass. A flat divergence or semi-divergence can be seen between the last two valleys and Ar-Z-I, which to some extent contributes to the formation of the Filler Sowing pattern. Therefore, for now, we consider the first support in the range of 1420 and the first resistance in the range of 1470.