Sudan crisis scenarios; The victory of a general or a long war?

According to the report of the Fars International News Agency, the “BBC” channel today (Friday, April 28) analyzed the future developments in Sudan and possible scenarios for the end of this internal crisis between the military in a conversation with analysts.

According to the Al-Mayadeen network website, the BBC, citing guest analysts, reported that the first scenario is a quick military victory for one of the two sides, which is unlikely to happen; Because both sides have different advantages in conflict management.

According to analysts, rapid support forces use the method of “mobile guerilla warfare” and therefore adapt to changes in the field earlier than their traditional competitors; These features have made the rapid support forces perform better than the army forces in the current battles in the city center of Khartoum.

The BBC’s guest analysts further pointed to the capabilities of the army and added that the Sudanese army has access to much more firepower and war equipment, from tanks and artillery to controlling air borders.

“Yonas Horner”, one of the guest analysts of this British network, while pointing out that the Sudanese army has the full support of Egypt, while the UAE and the Russian group “Wagner” support the rapid support forces, said: “Both sides can Foreign sponsors will get help and this will prolong the civil war in Sudan.

The second scenario that analysts consider probable is “prolonged conflict”. They believe that there are many ways for this conflict to escalate, and none of them are good for the people of Sudan.

“Mohand Hashem”, a Sudanese correspondent of the BBC, also reported: “This conflict has all the signs and capacities to become a long-term civil war, and this has made it difficult to control it.”

Hashem added: “Before the war started, we saw both Hamidti and al-Barhan trying to inflame ethnic differences and address their supporters. In addition, there are many movements by those loyal to the former regime of Omar al-Bashir and his National Congress Party, who support Islamic ideology.

BBC analysts considered the third scenario to be the “signing of a peace agreement between the conflicting parties” and noted: politicians are trying to convince the two generals to agree to the extension of the ceasefire; But when it comes to talking about the beginning of peace talks, no one can be hopeful about it starting so soon.

At the end, BBC analysts emphasized: “Everyone agrees that this agreement [آغاز مذاکرات صلح] It will be achieved only after political and economic pressure from foreign parties such as Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Since last Saturday, the 15th of April, due to the disagreement between the army and the rapid support forces, the national meetings and dialogues in Sudan have been canceled and with the surprise attack of the support forces under the command of “Mohammed Hamdan” nicknamed “Hamidati” on the army bases, internal conflicts in this The country began.

Now, after two weeks of this crisis, the fifth ceasefire agreement between the army and the Rapid Forces has been implemented, but the clashes and mutual accusations between the military continue. The targeting of a Turkish plane in Sudan has caused the verbal conflicts between the two sides to rise again; While General Abdul Fattah al-Barhan, the commander of the armed forces, blamed the “quick support rebels” for this attack, Hamidati’s forces rejected this claim and blamed al-Barhan for violating the ceasefire.

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