Tehran, the path to peace in the South Caucasus / What were the goals of the 3+3 meeting?
Online Economy, Mohammad Bayat: On Sunday night, November 1st, Tehran hosted the meeting of the foreign ministers of Iran, Russia, Turkey, Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan in the form of “3+3” with the title “The turn of peace, cooperation and progress in the South Caucasus”. According to the news published in the media, it seems that the main agenda of this meeting was to focus on the disputes in the Baku-Iran conflict cases, the feasibility of reopening the Zangzor Corridor and the development of economic cooperation. Last year, the first meeting of “3+3” at the level of deputy foreign ministers was held in Russia. An interesting point to note is the absence of Georgia as one of the South Caucasus countries in the Moscow and Tehran summits. At the end of this one-day meeting, a 9-point statement was published, the most important parts of which are on issues such as “peaceful resolution of disputes”, “non-interference in internal affairs”, “economic-cultural cooperation”, “strengthening bilateral and multilateral interactions” and “support It emphasizes the trends aimed at the normalization of relations between the governments of the region.
Foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia attended the “3+3” meeting in Tehran
In the eyes of analysts, the Tehran meeting is the result of two years of Iran’s active diplomacy with the aim of managing tensions in the northwestern borders and securing the country’s long-term interests in the “Middle Corridor”. Before holding this Ankara-Baku axis meeting, through the implementation of special anti-terrorist operations in the liberated areas of Karabagh, holding joint military exercises, active diplomacy in Moscow-Brussels-Washington and obtaining military-intelligence assistance from the Zionist regime, it tried to prepare the ground for the withdrawal of Yerevan and The establishment of the Zangzor Corridor will enter the implementation phase without exercising Yerevan’s sovereignty, but with increasing pressure from Tehran and Russia’s negative opinion regarding the increase in tensions in the region, this issue is currently out of the agenda of the Turks. Simultaneously with the “3+3” meeting in Tehran; Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan held a joint military exercise “Mustafa Kemal Atatürk 2023” in Baku, Nakhchivan and some newly liberated areas. In this exercise, missions such as building pontoon bridges to cross the river and confront the supposed enemy were on the agenda of the Azeri-Turkish military forces. Analysts believe that the simultaneity of this exercise with the Tehran meeting is a clear warning from the Turani axis to Iran and Armenia.
Mustafa Kemal Atatürk joint military exercise of the armies of Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan – October 2023
On the opposite side, the Islamic Republic of Iran, as one of the main opponents of the formation of the Zangzor Corridor and the change of international borders, has played a deterrent role in the process of controlling tensions in the region by following a series of measures in the military, economic and diplomatic sectors. For example, on the 9th of October 1400, the IRGC and the army warned Baku about the presence of the agents of the Zionist regime on the common border between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan and the change of borders by holding the “Kyber Conquerors” exercise. One year later, on the 29th of October 1401, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Amir Abdullahian, once again emphasized Tehran’s red line in the Yerevan-Baku conflict by opening the Iranian consulate in Kapan, Sivnik province. The Supreme Leader, as the highest political official in Iran, while referring to the sovereignty of the Republic of Azerbaijan over the newly liberated territories of Nagorno-Karabakh, demanded that the international borders not be changed and the rights of Armenians be preserved. All of these measures have caused Tehran to be recognized as one of the main obstacles in the implementation of the Turkish-Azeri corridor plan.
Inauguration of the Iranian Consulate in Sivnik province of Armenia
In addition, it seems that other international actors such as France, India, and the United States also tried to create a kind of balance of power against the trend of pan-Turkism by providing political-military support to Armenia. For example, in December 2022, the Indian company producing defense products committed to supply 155 mm artillery systems for 3 years in a contract worth 155 million dollars. Before Yerevan, in a contract worth 250 million dollars, it had taken steps to buy defense weapons such as anti-tank missiles. At the same time as the meeting in Tehran, French Defense Minister Sébastien LeCorneau announced the finalization of the sale of “Grand Master 200 Thales” radar systems and anti-aircraft systems to Yerevan. Taking advantage of the escalation of political differences between Yerevan and Moscow, Washington, in September 1402, started holding a joint military exercise with Armenia called “Eagle Partner”. Russia’s lack of sufficient support for Armenia and the mistrust between Moscow and Yerevan are considered to be the main reason for the increase in the role of extra-regional powers in the developments in the South Caucasus.
Holding a joint exercise between the United States and Armenia called “Eagle Partner”
Perhaps the most important message of the Tehran “3+3” meeting is to strengthen intra-regional dialogue mechanisms with the aim of reducing the role of foreign actors in the South Caucasus crisis. Undoubtedly, the presence of NATO members and Western strategic allies in the Armenia-Azerbaijan crisis will directly threaten the long-term interests of Iran and Russia in the long run. For example, the expansion of military-security relations between Baku and Tel Aviv is assessed as a security risk against the sensitive military-nuclear centers of our country. Also, the expansion of security relations between Yerevan and Washington, while destroying the integrity and unity of Russia’s “near abroad” countries, will provide the ground for the emergence of a vital danger in the southern borders of the tsars.
In such a situation, if Ankara-Baku are looking to develop economic routes and at the same time maintain stability in the South Caucasus region, they should consider the security considerations of Tehran-Moscow. The presence of warring powers on the borders of neighboring countries, attempts to change international borders and bypassing the countries on the “Middle Corridor” route will not only lead to the formation of a railway route to connect East-West markets, but may also cause a wide-scale conflict between nation-states. This area provided. In such a situation, it is necessary for the member countries of the “3+3” platform to recognize each other’s interests by putting on realistic glasses so that they can move towards the expansion of economic-corridor cooperation and stabilization of regional peace.
Agreement on connecting the Republic of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through the territory of Iran
The recent agreement between Tehran and Baku for the construction of the Nakhchivan road and rail route through Iranian soil indicates the return of the countries of the region to a kind of “realism” and “political pragmatism” in the South Caucasus region. By connecting the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan region through Iran, Ankara-Baku no longer needs to increase pressure on Armenia and violate Yerevan’s sovereignty in Sivnik province to launch the Zangzor Corridor. The creation and completion of this communication route can be a prelude to ending tensions in the region and securing the interests of all interested countries in the South Caucasus. Some analysts believe that one of the possible achievements of this multilateral agreement will be the reduction of the anti-security role of the Zionist regime and the United States on the borders of Iran and Russia.