The balance of foreign payments was positive at 11.1 billion dollars

The central bank published an explanation in response to the note of Al-Morad Saif entitled: “The central bank and the obvious policy error”.

In the Central Bank’s explanations, it is stated: Mr. Dr. Al-Murad Seif, a respected member of the faculty of Imam Hossein University (AS), in a note dated 8/24/1401 on his personal website entitled “The Central Bank and an Obvious Policy Error”, stated that The central bank has not been successful in managing the exchange rate. In this regard, it has been mentioned that the solutions taken by the central bank will open a new deviant space in Iran’s economy and give legitimacy to illegal dollar speculation and coin gambling. In this note, it is stated that the two recent actions of the Central Bank, including the sale and injection of foreign currency ($2,000 per person upon presentation of the national card) and the announcement of the possibility of buying bonds backed by the US dollar, were obvious policy errors.

In the following, some points are presented by him regarding the topics discussed.

First of all, it should be mentioned that during the recent years, exchange rate changes were mainly affected by non-economic and exogenous factors, which in practice led to changes in the exchange rate in a way that is not proportional to the economic foundations. However, in such a situation, the policy maker has tried to minimize the effects and negative consequences of the occurrence of the above factors at the macro level by using the tools at his disposal and at the same time respecting the economic requirements of the country. Therefore, the policy approach taken by the Central Bank has been to provide the basis for balancing supply and demand and, as a result, stabilizing the currency market, while paying attention to the necessity of protecting foreign exchange reserves.

It is also necessary to explain, according to the responsibility assigned to this bank in maintaining the value of the national currency in accordance with the upstream laws and also according to the requirements of the implementation of the managed floating currency system (the subject of paragraph “T” Note “2” of Article “20” of the Law on Permanent Decrees of Programs development of the country), the central bank’s attention has been focused on this issue, instead of emphasizing and insisting on maintaining a certain exchange rate, it provides a basis for this component to move in a balanced way and compatible with the changes in the fundamental factors of the macroeconomics.

Of course, it should be noted that in the form of a managed floating system, the central bank can intervene in the currency market with the aim of reducing short-term fluctuations and taking into account the requirements of the macroeconomics; therefore, the respected writer should be aware of the fact that the policy of intervention in the market Currency is one of the central bank’s tools and the use of this tool cannot be interpreted as currency manipulation.

One of the points raised in Mr. Dr. Saif’s note is that the implementation of foreign exchange policy ($2,000 per person) does not have a specific goal and is a completely blind and aimless action. In this connection, it is necessary to explain, in June of this year and facing the exchange rate fluctuations in the informal market which happened under the influence of psychological and expected factors, the Supreme Council of the Heads of Power delegated special powers to manage the foreign exchange market to the Central Bank and subsequently this The bank put a series of measures on its agenda.

In the first step, the central bank, by issuing a circular, issued a license for exporters to trade currency at an agreed rate in exchanges, and this action was able to leave positive effects in the direction of reducing the exchange rate in the market. In the following, this bank allowed the purchase of foreign currency by all natural and legal persons through the exchanges and thus allowed the activists of this sector to purchase foreign currency from all natural and legal persons at an agreed rate in addition to the currency of the exporters.

By establishing a transaction mechanism with an agreed rate, the process of currency supply by exporters was improved, which, by deepening the market and increasing the resources at the disposal of exchanges, provided a suitable field to cover and respond to the demand for banknotes of a larger group of real currency applicants at the market level. In this framework, people can get the currency they need (in the heading of other services) at an agreed rate by visiting exchange offices and selected bank branches, which in turn has a significant impact on reducing demand in the informal market and transferring it to official channels. followed

In the note of Mr. Dr. Seif, it is mentioned that the Central Bank’s policy of issuing currency bonds is an ineffective measure and a strategic mistake. In connection with the topic raised by him and the explanation of the reasons for the implementation of the aforementioned policy by the central bank, it is necessary to point out that one of the fundamental factors affecting the movement of the exchange rate is the state of the country’s foreign exchange resources, which of course, this component in the year 1400 and The past months since 1401 have been in favorable conditions.

For example, in 1400, the value of oil and non-oil exports was equal to 38.7 and 40.7 billion dollars, respectively, which shows an increase of 84.0 and 41.5 percent compared to the previous year. The result of the country’s foreign trade developments in 1400 caused the current account of the country’s foreign payments to have a surplus of 11.1 billion dollars.

This trend continued this year and the value of oil and non-oil exports has experienced a positive trend. Based on these discussions and considering the favorable condition of the fundamental components affecting the currency market, in a situation where sometimes the spread of false news about economic and political developments can have effects and consequences in the form of false emotions and, as a result, fluctuations in the currency market. Therefore, the central bank’s approach has been based on using available tools and introducing new tools to prevent the formation of fluctuations in the market and limit its emergence. In this connection, this bank decided to respond to a part of the demand in the foreign exchange market through the issuance of currency bonds with a short-term maturity (three months).

One of the points mentioned by the esteemed author is the need to embargo the US dollar and American goods. In this regard, it has been argued that the policy action of the Central Bank in issuing currency bonds is the officialization of the US dollar. In this regard, it is necessary to explain that the definition of currency bonds based on dollars does not mean the dollarization of the economy or the strengthening of the enemy’s economic war tools. One of the basic points in the design of this policy is to ensure that the basic asset of bonds is accepted by investors and that its cash market has sufficient depth in the country; in addition, the central bank can easily provide its bills at maturity. if requested by the bond holder). In this regard, since the destination countries for the export of Iranian goods mainly settle their exchanges with Iranian exporters through the US dollar, and also considering the favorable level of dollar banknote reserves inside the country, the selection of this currency as the base asset of bonds leads to Due date and upon the request of the bond holders, the banknote can be paid easily.

In conclusion, while appreciating and thanking the project and expressing the views and viewpoints of the experts, it is expected that a detailed and expert evaluation will be made regarding the performance of the government and the central bank in the field of managing the money and currency markets, taking into account the conditions governing the macroeconomic environment of the country. accept Based on this, applying expressions such as dedication and passivity to the country’s monetary and currency policy custodian and its expert and management body is a negation of fairness.