The dollar behavior of the housing market / the clue of the real estate market fell into the hands of the dollar? – Tejarat News
According to Tejarat News, the price of the dollar and housing have gone through an upward trend in recent years in line with inflation and the growth of expectations resulting from it.
The reports of the Iranian Statistics Center show that the average housing price in Tehran in the fall of 2009 was one million and 183 thousand tomans; This average price has grown to 48 million and 288 thousand tomans, 12 years later, i.e. in the fall of 1401, in an unprecedented event.
The average price of housing in Tehran has increased by 2,500 percent between the fall of 2009 and the same season in 2011.
In other words, in 1389, a person could buy a medium-level apartment with about 111 million Tomans, but now he has to spend about three billion and 600 million Tomans for the same residential unit.
Earlier, Tejarat News reported in the report titled “2500% increase in housing prices in 12 years!” / The astronomical distance of property inflation in Iran and the countries of the world” has addressed this issue.
This is despite the fact that the price of the dollar was around one thousand tomans in the fall of 1389 and reached around 40 thousand tomans by the end of the fall of 1401.
The impact of the dollar price on the housing market
According to a traditional point of view, the price of the dollar and real estate are very close together, and if the price of the dollar increases, the real estate price will also follow the fluctuations of this currency in the medium term. But to what extent is this proposition correct and based on the historical trend in the past years, what path have these two markets followed?
Economist Peyman Molavi told Tejarat News: “In Iran, there are three different decades for the real estate market. Between 1974 and 1984, the average property price in Iran was below 1000 dollars; “In the period when Ahmadinejad came to power until the sanctions had not yet started, the average property price reached nearly two thousand dollars, and from the early 90s until now, the average property price has been defined in relation to one thousand dollars.”
The ratio between the dollar and the average housing price
Molloy explained about the ratio of the dollar and housing prices: “In recent years, the ratio between the dollar and the average property price has been close to 1 to 1/2. In the last five years, this ratio has been true almost most of the time.
He continued: “The reason is that the movement and jumps of the dollar have shown themselves more in the housing market. When the dollar suddenly jumps, the time for proper investment and conversion of dollars into real estate in Iran will come, like in 1997 when the dollar rose from four thousand tomans to 18 thousand tomans, during which the dollar price of real estate fell and the signal of buying real estate with selling He gave the dollar, which was correct.”
Molavi also said: “Similar to this happened in December and December 1401, and the trend of property price growth has continued until now. Therefore, whenever a currency jump happens, it is a good time to convert dollars into real estate in Iran, and we can see the growth of the dollar in the real estate market.”
The pursuit of housing from the dollar?
This economist said about the impact of the increase in the price of the dollar on the housing market: “Those who say that the increase in the price of the dollar is a direct factor for the increase in property prices do not have a correct understanding of the market. The cause of inflation in the dollar and housing market is the lack of economic growth, money printing and inflation. Inflation decreases the value of the rial and increases the price in the markets. The dollar itself is a measuring factor.
He continued: “When the growth of the housing market is examined, the growth of a point is wrong in terms of investment, and the mortgage period should also be added to it. This is the reason why in the calculation of dollar, stock market and gold, housing is considered first and then housing.
Molloy also said about the reason for the price growth of the dollar and housing in the past years: “Demand can be the main factor of this price increase. In the last 10 years, economic growth has been zero and liquidity growth has increased 17 times, and the result is inflation, which shows itself in all markets.
According to what has been said, the only way to control housing prices and fix the critical situation of this market is to improve the macroeconomic situation. As long as inflation, liquidity growth and political and economic sanctions against Iran continue, the price increase in the financial and capital markets such as the dollar and housing will continue.
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