The effects of the 1402 budget bill on the country’s capital market – Tejaratnews

According to Tejarat News, the country’s 1402 budget bill has been submitted to the parliament in recent days. In this bill, the public resources and expenses of the country have reached 2,164 thousand billion tomans with an increase of over 40%, of which 1,984 thousand billion tomans are related to the public resources of the government and the rest are special revenues. As a result, the next year’s budget is an expansionary budget.

Seyed Mohammad Taqipour Moghim, an expert on the capital market, said: In the resources sector, the transfer of capital assets has grown by 74% compared to the previous year’s bill. This asset has reached the figure of 712 thousand billion Tomans, and after deducting the 40% share of the National Development Fund and the share of the National Oil Company, the export of oil, gas condensate and natural gas constitutes 85% of this sector’s weight.

He continued: The assumptions are the daily export of 1.4 million barrels of oil and the price of oil at $85, which seems a little optimistic considering the current year’s export trend.

This capital market expert stated: Tax revenues amounting to 826 thousand billion tomans, constitute a 42% share of the government’s public resources. In this sector, the tax of legal entities has grown by 120% compared to the previous year and has reached 294 thousand billion tomans, which is partly due to the increase in tax bases. In addition, about 32 thousand billion tomans have been considered for car import duties, which shows the government’s determination to import cars in the next year.

Taghipour Moghim said: The transfer of non-financial assets has been estimated at 214 thousand billion tomans in the next year’s budget with a growth of more than two times compared to the previous year, and the transfer of state companies and the transfer of property have equal weight in this sector. In the transfer of financial assets, the share of the sale of government bonds in the next year’s budget amounts to 185 thousand billion tomans. Iran’s National Steel Industry Group and some government refineries are among the next year’s transfers.

He explained: In the expenses department, expenses have reached 1,454 thousand billion tomans with a growth of 51%. Therefore, in the operational balance of the budget, we see a deficit of 476 thousand billion tomans, which is mainly compensated through the transfer of capital assets. Also, the amount of capital assets acquired for construction projects has reached 202 thousand billion tomans with a 20% decrease compared to this year.

Petrochemical fuel rates and the stock market

This capital market activist explained: Note table 14 is not included in the budget bill in detail, but according to previous years, the sale of domestic petroleum products and the export of petroleum products (more than 200 thousand barrels per day) and the sale of feed gas and fuel to industries and individuals in It has been seen. Among the points to be mentioned regarding Note 14 is the feed rate of petrochemical methane, which is considered equal to 7,000 Tomans per cubic meter in the coming year, and the fuel rate coefficient of large industries such as petrochemicals, refineries, and steel is considered equal to 50% of the feed rate. .

He further said: This is despite the fact that the price of feed and fuel for petrochemicals this year was 5000 and 2000 tomans respectively per cubic meter. In petrochemical companies, the most negative impact is borne by this increase in methanol and urea companies. Also, in the steel production chain, companies producing sponge iron receive the most negative impact from this decree.

This capital market expert emphasized: Currently, the formula for calculating the feed of petrochemicals is not a correct indicator of the global feed price due to the consideration of European gas hubs that consume gas and have experienced price increases in recent years. It is worth mentioning that with the feed formula of petrochemicals and the current global gas rates, the feed rate is 8 thousand tomans per cubic meter, which if we remove the rate of two European hubs from the formula, we will reach a rate of about 4 thousand tomans per cubic meter of gas.

Taghipour Moghim stated: Regarding the ownership interest, the same number considered in the next year’s bill is 40 thousand billion tomans, which according to the figure considered this year, does not have a significant impact on the profitability of companies. Although it can have a greater effect on companies near the beginning of the mining chain.

Finally, he said: Among other things affecting the capital market is the issue of export duties on raw and semi-raw products, the exact type of products and the rate of export duties have not been clearly stated. In next year’s budget bill, in order to support small shareholders, up to 15 thousand billion tomans of shares of state-owned companies will be transferred to the capital market stabilization fund through the Ministry of Economy. Another positive point of the budget is the zero tax rate for certificates of deposits exchanged in the commodity exchange and the tax exemption of a part of the profit that is used to increase capital from the accumulated place.

Source: civilization