The efficiency of the markets in the fourth week of July 1401/ the decline of all financial markets

According to Tejarat News, Market performance in the fourth week of Julyshows that all four markets experienced a decline.

Dollar price

Dollar price In the fourth week of July, it dropped by 0.21%. This was the lowest negative return among financial markets. This market had grown by 0.18% last week.

National ExchangeOn Thursday, July 23, he announced the sale rate of the dollar at 27,846 tomans. Meanwhile, on Thursday, July 23, the exchange board showed the figure of 27,905 Tomans.

Dollar price fluctuations

The price of the dollar in the open market was fluctuating and overall decreasing this week. Some Telegram channels that announce the prices of the foreign exchange market did not give rates from the end of Thursday, July 16 until the afternoon of Wednesday, July 23, and after that it was very limited. But they started announcing rates again from Friday. On Saturday, the rates in these channels increased and entered the higher channel. Of course, some sources also believe that these channels announce prices higher than the real figure.

After that, the dollar market began a downward trend and returned to the lower channel. Experts attribute this to political signals from diplomatic trips this week and talks on revitalizing the JCPOA.

gold price

According to Tejarat News, the yield of the gold market also decreased by 1.88% in the week ending on July 24, 1401. This figure was the highest negative return among the financial markets. Last week, gold experienced a negative return of 0.28%.

gold price On Thursday, it reached one million 355 thousand 89 Tomans. This is despite the fact that on July 23, each gram of gold was traded for 1,380,000 20 Tomans.

Prices for coins

Coin market buyers also experienced a price drop this week. During this period, the negative yield for the new design coin was 1.66%. This is despite the fact that the coin market experienced the highest positive return among financial markets last week with a growth of 0.33%. Both gold and coins have often had negative returns in recent weeks.

Prices for coins The new plan was announced on Thursday, July 30, 14 million and 800 thousand tomans. The coin was worth 15 million and 50 thousand tomans last week.

Market Gold and coins Also this week, it experienced fluctuations under the influence of the dollar price trend. gold price At the beginning of the week, it was in the range of 1,380,000 Tomans, but it continued to decrease. In such a way that it reached one million and 340 thousand tomans. Of course, gold finished the week higher.

Prices for coins It was also fluctuating. In such a way that the coin of the new plan, which at the beginning of the week was in the channel of 15 million tomans, fell to the level of 14 million tomans. The price of the old design coin also fluctuated in the range of 14 million, 350 and 400 thousand tomans. Both coin designs ended the week higher.

Price oz It also had a down week in total.

Exchange

But in another way Market performance in the fourth week of JulyOverall Index Exchange Like last week, it dropped. The capital market ended this week at the level of 1,471,898 units.

This is despite the fact that the index of the whole stock market reached 1 million 490 thousand 51 units on the last working day of last week, Wednesday, July 22. These figures mean a 1.22% drop in the total index. Last week, the stock market lost 0.84% ​​of the total index, which was the highest negative return among financial markets.

Sarah Fallah, a capital market expert, said in her weekly stock market forecast: “The last week of July was also a week of low volume and low volume for the stock market, just like other weeks of summer.” One of the reasons was the closure of nearly 200 important and influential symbols of the market, which were closed due to the assembly.

He added: These days, Kodal’s reports along with the news of the assemblies are the most important components that the market pays attention to, and naturally, the shares that had a higher dividend in the past years are more interested.

Effective signals on market performance

According to Tejarat News, the financial markets have been affected in recent times Vienna talks and political news were located

Financial markets in Iran especially Dollar price Usually to political news especially about Nuclear negotiations have been sensitive This week, the trip of the senior political officials of Russia and Turkey to Iran was among the important political news. In particular, the presence of Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, in the country had signals for the dollar market, followed by gold and coins.

Two important political events took place this week. One was US President Joe Biden’s visit to the region and the second was Putin’s visit to Tehran today.

This news made the price of the dollar in the free market fluctuate and decrease in the last four days. Analysts believe that this price reduction was due to the formation of some positive political expectations. Political trips could lower the price of the dollar.

At the same time, Iran and the opposite sides continue to accuse each other of indecisiveness. Nasser Kanani, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, wrote in a tweet on his personal page: The false dichotomy between the JCPOA (which Iran, unlike the US, is still a member of) and the good relations between Iran and its neighbors, including Russia, does not hide the fact that indecision America, the covenant-breaker, is the most important obstacle to reaching an agreement.Irena).

On the other hand, the head of British intelligence considered the ability of the parties participating in the nuclear negotiations to revive this agreement to be unlikely.

He said: I think that the agreement is definitely on the table; And the European powers and the (US) government have been very clear about this, and I don’t think the Russians and the Chinese will stand in the way of an agreement. But I don’t think Iranians are looking for it (choice).

The future of financial markets

Ali Sadeghin, an expert on financial markets, said in a conversation with Tejarat News: In general, the trend of the dollar can be summarized in two parts; One part is market-making policies and the other part is the fundamental variables that determine the price of the dollar.

He continued: From the perspective of market-making policies, it is expected that in the next one to two weeks, there will still be supply in the Nima system.

This expert also said: the pressure of market supply in the next month is still there. But from September onwards, when the budget deficit worsens, fundamental variables show more effect. On the other hand, political news is somewhat more challenging. As a result, we see more price increases.

Barzo Haqshanas, an expert in financial markets, believes that the ambiguity in Vienna negotiations And the country’s inflationary outlook shows that probably the prices in the market will increase in August Gold and coins and for the exchange rate to grow.

Questionable central bank statistics

In the meantime, the latest report of the central bank from the selection of economic statistics shows that the increasing coefficient of liquidity and monetary base in June this year was a decrease compared to March 1400. Of course, the liquidity of June 1401 compared to March 1400 has grown by 5.6%.

The increasing coefficient of liquidity in June compared to March has also been announced as negative 4%. Of course, the one-year growth of the increasing coefficient of liquidity was 7.8%.

Also, the monetary base has reached 6403.7 thousand billion Rials in June this year, which has grown by 27.8% compared to June last year. The monetary base growth of June this year compared to March 1401 has also been announced as 6%.

Of course, the growth of the monetary base in June compared to April was negative 3 thousand billion tomans.

At the same time, the report of the National Monetary and Banking Authority shows that the government’s borrowing from the central bank continues. In fact, in addition to the growth of monetary base and liquidity, which are the main factors of inflation, in recent months, public sector debts to banks have also increased rapidly.

What does the increase in government debt mean to banks?

Earlier, financial market expert Haqshanas told Tejarat News: Contrary to the statistics published by the central bank about the decrease in liquidity growth rate in Farvardin, Ardibehesht data show another reality.

He added: In addition, in the first month of this year, this institution has taken measures that will have inflationary effects in the future. Among them, state companies have taken large loans from the banking network with the approval of the central bank.

Haqshanas said: In fact, this institution is playing with statistics to make the growth rate of liquidity appear to be decreasing. When government companies receive facilities from banks, the central bank has actually started printing money with a delay. In other words, the government does not put its hands in the pockets of this institution, but in reality it has indebted its companies to the banking network.

This financial market expert considered the payment of cash subsidies as another sign of the possibility of inflation. He explained: Since the beginning of the year, a large amount of cash subsidies have been paid to the people, and it is not clear where the financial resources came from. If this issue has made the government indebted to the banks, it will show its negative effects in the future, including in the dollar, gold and coin markets.

Political signals and macroeconomic indicators Efficiency of markets are effective

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