The forecast of Monday, August 23, 1402 / dollar, will the stock market sheet return?
According to Tejarat News, the stock exchange transactions were closed on the second day of the fourth week of August in such a way that the overall index slowed down the speed of its previous day’s decline. In this way, the main thermometer of the glass hall faced a drop of 1,711 units, which is equivalent to 0.09% of this index. Accordingly, the total index stood at the level of one million and 987 thousand units at the end of Sunday trading.
The balance index also moved with the total index command. In this way, the index of small and medium-sized companies of the market could not increase its height and reached the level of 691 thousand 818 units with a decrease of 0.29 percent.
With the fall of the stock market, the dollar value of the capital market reached 181 billion dollars. The cap of the dollar value of the stock market this year is 223 billion dollars. This means a drop of more than 18% in the dollar value of the Tehran Stock Exchange.
Tehran Stock Exchange under the microscope of statistics and figures
The board of the Tehran Stock Exchange shows the volume of transactions on Sunday at seven billion and 900 million shares and the value of transactions of shares, preemptive rights and mutual funds with a five percent decrease compared to Saturday, four thousand and 532 billion tomans.
Investigating the ownership statistics of real people on this day indicates the withdrawal of real people’s capital from the stock market. The capital inflow and outflow index at the end of the second day of the week reports the outflow of 90 billion tomans from shares, preemptive rights and mutual funds.
The root of the instability of the capital market
A market that is trapped in an erosive downward trend and the money of individuals and legal entities is potentially non-existent as a result of the loss of confidence, reacts to the smallest negative news.
From May 17, the government’s decision to increase the feed rate, which was not publicized at that time, shook the market. Some people who had access to this news took a lot of money out of the market and the market went down. The news of feed rate increase hit the stock market at several times and its margin continues. The latest news in this regard is the letter of the speaker of the parliament to the government, which requested the amendment of this resolution. At the end of this letter, it is mentioned that if the one-week deadline expires, this resolution will be canceled.
The main role of market movements take stock
Since 70% of the market is directly affected by the dollar through the company’s sales rate, this issue has caused the US dollar rate to have a great impact on the company’s EPS and price. However, during the past two days, the industries that are less affected by the dollar were also on the negative side of the fluctuation range. The root of this is the leader-oriented nature of the stock market. Most industries that make up a large percentage of the market value are leader companies.
When these companies are negative, the general investors, who sometimes buy or sell the dollar without analyzing the profitability of the company and its influence, look at the leader symbols and following the negative of the big companies, the whole market will become negative.
Considering that the Azad dollar did not fall below 48 thousand tomans in Ferdowsi Square transactions during its weekend decline and also in the last two weeks when the downward sentiment dominated the currency market, it is expected that the stock market will show a better trend in the middle of the week. to experience
The recent agreement between Iran and the US to release the blocked currencies in South Korea played a major role in the decline of the dollar last weekend. However, it seems that this reduction was mostly due to the emotional behavior of traders in Ferdowsi Square. Because the freed resources are not given to Iran in the form of cash and are given to the third government (Qatar) only for humanitarian purposes and with limited usage.
The future of the dollar as the main driver of the capital market
In discussing the impact of the dollar on the stock market, the first thing to note is that a drop in the dollar rate does not necessarily mean a decrease in the profitability of all companies. Even in the agreement scenario, companies benefit from reduced transaction costs. But as mentioned earlier, the market is in a bearish trend and overreacts to any negative news.
In the meantime, every time the fever of the agreement is at the top of the news, a basic question arises in the minds of the people of the capital market. Will the political agreement and opening through the reduction of the dollar rate be detrimental to the stock market, or will these agreements increase the value of the stock market through economic openings?
To answer this question, it should be said that both views can be correct depending on the analytical frame. In the short term, considering that the sales of many companies are in dollars, the decrease in the value of the dollar can have a great impact on the profitability of companies, especially large companies.
In the long term, political agreement and opening may lead to the development of the country’s infrastructure. Currently, the country’s infrastructure, such as power plant capacity and gas refining capacity, is deteriorating, and companies faced power outages in the summer and gas outages in the winter in the past years. In this case, by increasing the production and sales capacity of the companies, their profitability will change and the stock market value will also increase.
However, a look at the history of the dollar shows that even in periods when the country was not involved in many sanctions, the trend of the dollar was upward and always increased, but with the appearance of sanctions, this trend intensified. Therefore, even if there is an agreement, considering the amount of liquidity growth, we cannot expect the dollar to decrease in the long term.
Monday stock market forecast
According to the reviewed points as well as the trading situation of Ferdowsi Square, which shows the return of the dollar to higher levels and stability in the channel of 49 thousand tomans, experts believe that the stock market will take a step towards balance in the middle of the week. It is also expected that smaller brands and industries, including food, which showed good monthly performance, will face an increase in demand.
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