The inflation rate returned to the 30% channel

According to the Iran Economist report, citing the public relations of the central bank, Mohammad Shirijian, in a conversation with Sima’s Economic Desk program, stated that one of the most important factors contributing to the growth of the economy was the control of producer inflation, and said that the reduction of producer inflation is related to the predictability of the economy. It has helped and reduced the cost of the producer, and in this regard, the producer price index has decreased by 15 percentage points to about 34% during this period, an approach that is highly effective in economic growth.

The deputy of the central bank stated that this spring was one of the few periods when the economic growth in the first quarter of the year was higher than the average economic growth of the year and the average long-term economic growth. , the economic group of the government came to the conclusion that it should set its goals in 1402 on the non-inflationary growth of the economy, adjusting and facing destructive economic cycles and predicting macroeconomic variables for the general public and economic activists.

* Development of a policy package to curb inflation and production growth

He added: This year, which was named by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution as the year of “inflation control and production growth”, this assurance was created in the government’s economic governance system that the targeting was done and the approach taken by the government was chosen correctly. has been Based on this, from the beginning of this year, the three economic policy-making bodies of the country, i.e. the Central Bank, the Planning and Budget Organization and the Ministry of Economy and Finance Affairs, designed a policy package in the form of a program to contain inflation and production growth with the cooperation of other bodies. In this policy package, the task of each of the institutions was specifically designed to curb inflation and production growth, with the focus on solving a series of disagreements as the main root of the structural problems of the country’s economy.

Pointing out that the programs are designed to resolve budget imbalances, banking imbalances, pension fund imbalances, energy imbalances and similar issues, Shirijian said: In this program, we have focused on non-inflationary financing of the economy for the government and economic activists. Liquidity control and management program and increasing liquidity productivity, monetary base management program, foreign investment attraction program, productivity program and increasing the economic added value of government assets are among other programs that are compiled, designed and developed in the Economic Council with the presence of the honorable President. It was approved and communicated to the institutions, and the implementation of these programs is continuously monitored.

* 103% producer inflation reached 34%

Presenting the performance report of the implementation of this program in the first 6 months of this year, the economic vice president of the Central Bank said: The first achievement is the reduction of inflation. The government has been successful in curbing inflation, so that since the beginning of this year, the country’s inflation has decreased by 16 percent. That is, we have reached 39% inflation from about 55% inflation. We have also seen a 15% decrease in the producer price index, and considering that producer inflation or the producer price index has a strong impact on economic growth, we see that this figure has now reached about 34% and has been severely adjusted. This is despite the fact that in May 1400 (before the 13th government) we had 103% producer inflation.

Pointing out that one of the most important factors contributing to the growth of the economy has been curbing producer inflation, Shirijian said: reducing producer inflation has contributed to the predictability of the economy and reduced the producer’s cost. One of the main reasons for inflation and economic growth decline is producer inflation, and the government has been able to control this sector well. When the producer can predict the price of his raw materials and intermediate goods, this issue is also effective in increasing his production.

* Realization of economic growth of 6.2 percent and exit from recession

He further emphasized: We are in the few periods of the economy where the economic growth of the first quarter of the year is higher than the average economic growth of the year and the average long-term economic growth. In recent years, the country’s economy has experienced good growth, and according to reliable economic statements, if an economy can experience a growth of more than 3% during several consecutive years, it can be said that it has come out of economic recession.

Shirijian added: The economy of the country experienced an economic growth of 4.1% in 2019, 4.4% in 1400 and 4% in 1401, and currently the country’s economic growth has reached 6.2% this spring. which is higher than last year’s average. The government’s target for this year is to record economic growth above 3%, and in the first quarter we are ahead of the target we have set.

Pointing out that the central bank mainly aims at liquidity, he said: In addition to managing the variables of the real sector of the economy, the monetary variables are also well managed and the growth of liquidity has reached 26.9%.

The economic vice president of Central Bank further said: In the economic growth of the spring of 1402, we are witnessing the balanced growth of all sectors of the economy. In 1401, the growth of the service sector was lower, but in the first quarter of this year, the growth of the service sector reached 6.2 percent. We have also witnessed the growth of the agricultural sector this spring compared to the spring of last year.

Shirijian continued: Investment growth in the spring of 1401 was negative 1.2%, which has reached 2% this year, and this means that economic growth is accompanied by investment growth, and investment growth has started since last year.

* 3.7% growth of industry sector and 1.5% share of oil group

The economic vice president of the central bank said: In the industrial production sector, the industrial goods production index, which constitutes 70% of the added value of the industrial sector, has grown by 3.7%. In the oil industry, the increase in crude oil production has increased by 20%, in the production of gas condensate, we have reached an increase in production by 5%, and as a result, we have increased exports. In this way, 1.5 percent of the 6.2 percent of economic growth has belonged to the oil sector.

He reminded: in the service sector in the field of transportation and warehousing, retail and wholesale (which by the way, these two sectors are complementary, which shows that the circulation of goods in the economy has increased) and in the field of hotels and restaurants and circulation Gary has seen the most growth.

This official pointed out: In the statistics, we pay attention to the production and this production has been fixed according to the prices of the base year 95, that is, the changes in the production prices from 96 to 1402 are not taken into account, and that which leads to an increase in economic growth is the same amount. It is production, that is, by multiplying the price by the amount of different items, we arrive at one value, and this price value is stable, and the thing that causes changes is the amount of production.

Shirijian continued: We are witnessing the growth of sectors that have been severely affected by the sanctions, i.e. the growth of 16.4% in the oil sector and 3.7% in industries, and the vice president shows that we have been able to control the effects of the sanctions and also in the field of production. The food industry and the production of motor vehicles have grown the most.

* Growth prospects until the end of the year

He also said about the growth outlook until the end of the year: We hope to be able to continue the positive economic trend until the end of the year, because the economic signs tell us the same thing.

The economic vice president of the central bank stated: In the development of the goods sector in the industry sector, I must mention that the financial statements of listed manufacturing companies indicate that we had a 6.7% growth in July and a 9.2% growth in August. On the other hand, the inventory of warehouses has decreased, which shows that the investment from the production location of the warehouse has improved, and also the predictability of the future of the economy has improved.

He added: We have had a good growth in the agricultural sector, for example, we have had 10 million tons of guaranteed purchase of wheat. In the field of construction, the growth of government investment in the construction sector was 45% and the growth of private sector investment was 40.3%, and the collection of these cases shows that we will continue the economic growth until the end of the year.

Shirijian stated: We must follow the non-inflationary financing program and this position is being followed up, which will be updated according to the conditions, and we will also follow the production of assets, as well as the discussion of using the economic capacities that are due to the development of regional relations. We follow the improved. We will also continue managing liquidity productivity and managing chain financing.

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