The leading industries of the stock market in 1402/ forecasting the ups and downs of the capital market – Tejaratnews

According to Tejarat News, on Friday, the first capital market outlook conference was held at Al-Zahra University with the presence of economic and stock market experts.

Mohammad Reza Ghanbari, CEO of Bahonar Brokerage Company, said: All of us economic activists in the capital market, economy, and also in daily production face various economic issues, and we analyze and evaluate these issues both in the macro economy and in the micro economy. Also, we monitor the monetary and financial policies of the government and other organizations and actually measure them with the opinion of experts and their impact on the economy; Therefore, this issue is the main focus of our economic decisions, both in economic enterprises and in the personal field.

He stated: Today, in cooperation with Toka Steel Holding, Toka Niriv Sepahan Company, and Mobarakeh Foolad Company, we gathered together to analyze and examine these issues for the next year with the cooperation of capital market activists and economic activists in order to find our own way.

Four influencing factors on the stock market

Siamak Ghasemi, an economic expert, examined the capital market in the coming year and by posing the question of which direction the economy will go in 1402 and which is the best option for investment according to this matter; He listed 4 important factors in influencing the stock market.

Ghasemi explained the structural factors, psychological factors, short-term factors and global economic factors, considering the increasing trend of the dollar rate and the growth of liquidity and inflation resulting from it, buying the shares of export-oriented companies is the best option in this regard.

Referring to the influencing factors in the capital market, he said: Our view of the capital market should be a macro view. In my opinion, the capital market is currently influenced by many factors at different levels. Therefore, if we look closely at this market, different economic structures are effective in this field.

Emphasizing that the capital market is a part of Iran’s economy and one cannot be indifferent to economic growth rate, inflation and liquidity situation, this economic expert added: Capital market is a part of the country’s economy. Also, sanction and investment is another factor of the economic structure affecting the capital market and these sanctions have caused the investment in the country to decrease. On the other hand, the country has a fundamental imbalance in the energy sector.

He also mentioned public fear and luck, political risk and investment period, command economy and command pricing, multi-rate system, monetary policies and the world market as the main factors affecting the Iranian capital market.

Ghasemi emphasized: the growth of the capital market in the coming days is not only real; Rather, it will only be nominal and will follow the release of the inflationary currency.

1402 budget and government expenses

Mahmoud Moradi, a capital market expert regarding government spending and the 1402 budget, said: Our government has a double job, on the one hand, it has tax revenues, and on the other hand, it earns money from underground sources of oil and gas; However, in the field of oil revenues, due to sanctions, it has encountered problems and has sold bonds to compensate for it.

He added: “The government currently has 978 hamats of income and 1454 hamats of expenses, and about 862 hamats of tax revenue and nearly 476 hamats of deficit, which is the biggest deficit in the history of the country.” There are 711 projects in the field of transfer of oil capital assets and 327 projects in capital asset acquisition, 210 financial asset acquisitions and 294 projects in the field of financial transfer, which are included in the sources and expenses of the country’s general budget.

This expert said: We have gone through the wrong economic process for nearly 15 years and this budget has not been ruined overnight, and besides that, sanctions have doubled this importance. The dollar rate we had in February 1401 had also increased in February 1996. Currently, we have about 13 billion dollars of capital outflow and it is expected that this amount will reach 25 billion dollars by the end of the year.

He emphasized: In order to improve the capital market, the dollar rate and petrochemical feed rate should be reduced. Unfortunately, the government does not have the ability to control the currency of 4200 Tomans and this issue will increase costs in the future.

Stock exchange industries

Abdullah Meshkani, an expert on financial markets, also examined the situation of the dollar and stated: People have no role in increasing inflation and inflation comes from the budget deficit. In June and July 1402, we will see the impact of the growth of the dollar price, and the dollar rate should be adjusted by half. If the total index reaches the range of 1,300,000 units, it will definitely be the last fall of the stock market. In the coming year, the most profitable market is the stock market. Mining, metals, petrochemical and refinery groups will have higher returns next year, but the growth rate of gold and dollar will be lower than the capital market.

What is the threat of the capital market?

Fardin Agha Zagiri, a senior stock market expert, said: the improvement of economic conditions does not always lead to the improvement of the capital market. The biggest threat to the capital market is the decision-making process of the government, which has always faced a budget deficit.

He added: “Definitely, based on economic documents, the economy will be affected by hyperinflation in the next two years.” There is the attractiveness and capability of the general level of prices, and under the influence of economic conditions, we should see the stock market as deserving of an increase. In the coming year, the stock market will be a very suitable inflation shield that preserves capital for people.

Political risk threatens the stock market

Barzo Haqshanas, an expert in financial markets, further stated: The stock market always grows along with inflation. This spring will soon be released and the market growth will continue to be due to inflation. Governments unfortunately create a bubble in a market and earn money from it. Now it is the discussion of the competition council and the car market. I hope we will have a better year for the capital market next year. Political risks are the biggest risk for next year.