The mystery of Iran’s oil income in 10 years of embargo/predicted income of 36 billion dollars in 2022

According to the economic reporter of Fars News Agency, two different strategies have been proposed in the face of the oil embargo in the country; The first strategy, which was implemented in the 11th and 12th governments, believed that the defeat of the sanctions would be possible through negotiations with the United States and the removal of the sanctions.

The second strategy also believes that the only way to defeat oil sanctions is to make them ineffective by creating a market for Iranian oil and getting rid of crude oil sales.

* What was the only achievement of negotiations with America in oil exports?

Figure 1 shows Iran’s oil exports in 8 years of the 11th and 12th governments. The main strategy of the Rouhani government for the sale of Iranian oil was focused on the agreement with the United States.

The implementation of this strategy in the field of selling Iranian oil resulted in a “benefit” and a “cost”. According to the picture, after the implementation of the JCPOA, Iran’s oil exports reached 2 million barrels per day, but after the failure of the JCPOA, Iran’s oil exports decreased to 100,000 to 200,000 barrels per day, not to 1 million barrels before the JCPOA was accepted.

Picture 1

This caused the overall cost and benefit of the agreement strategy with the US to increase Iran’s oil sales and the average Iranian oil export in Rouhani’s government reached 1.1 million barrels per day, a figure that was reached by the government before the JCPOA was accepted and in the current situation. It is sold on the 13th.

In fact, the only achievement of the negotiation with America in the sale of Iranian oil was that it changed the oil export graph from a linear state to a sinusoidal state with the same average, so that the total cost and benefit were broken. (Image 2).

Picture 2

* The mystery of Iran’s oil income in 10 years of embargo

This almost happened in the field of Iran’s oil revenues. Figure 3 shows Iran’s oil revenues from 2010 to 2022 according to OPEC statistics. According to the picture, Iran’s average oil revenues in the 8 years of Rouhani’s government were equal to 37.5 billion dollars.

With the inauguration of the 13th government in the second half of 2021 and the increase of Iran’s oil exports to China, Iran’s oil income increased by 230% compared to 2020 and reached more than 25 billion dollars.

Picture 3

According to forecasts, Iran’s oil income in 2022 will be equal to 36 billion dollars, which is almost equal to the average oil income of the previous government.

In addition, it should be noted that the solution of the 13th government under the strategy of neutralizing the oil embargo by creating an oil market and getting rid of crude oil sales has not yet been fully implemented, which, if implemented, estimates indicate that Iran’s annual income will be 50 billion dollars.

The end of the message/T 17