The possibility of the Russia-Ukraine conflict turning into a “frozen war” situation

According to Fars International News Agency, an American media, quoting the country’s officials, wrote that Washington is planning for the possibility that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will turn into a “frozen war”.

In terms of international relations, frozen war refers to a situation in which armed conflicts between the parties have ended, but no peace treaty or other political mechanism has been established that can resolve the tensions between the two parties, and war is possible at any moment. start again

“Politico” news site in this report published today (May 18/28) writes that the United States is preparing for a situation where the frozen war between the two sides will continue for many years and maybe even decades. If such an event occurs, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine will become similar to the tensions in the Korean Peninsula or conflicts in South Asia.

According to Politico, discussions have been held in various institutions of the Biden administration and the White House about the possibility of this conflict entering a long-term freeze.

Given that neither Kiev nor Moscow are willing to accept defeat, this scenario may be the most realistic long-term outcome expected.

This possibility seems more real, especially since perceptions in the White House are moving towards the fact that Ukraine’s Patek is not going to strike a blow against Russia.

Politico wrote that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict entering such a situation would be a favorable outcome for the United States and other countries that support Ukraine because the number of military conflicts will decrease, the costs of supporting Kiev will decrease and the public attention will be reduced to the war.

“We are planning for the long term, whether the conflict freezes or whether it leads to peace,” said an American official familiar with the Biden administration’s deliberations on Ukraine, speaking on condition of anonymity.

This American official said that while in the past months, the Biden administration focused more on short-term and emergency planning regarding Ukraine, it has now shifted its focus to long-term planning.

Two other US officials and a former Biden administration official also confirmed that a prolonged freeze is one possibility the White House is preparing for.

“There is a school of thought that says the Ukrainians should have Mariupol and access to the Sea of ​​Azov,” the former US official said. But there are others who place less emphasis on border lines as long as it is clear that Ukraine is moving forward with a secure situation.”

Such consultations are in their early stages. The American official said that this war will remain heated for now and that the Biden administration is determined to provide weapons and support to Ukraine.

Even so, Politico writes, even the suggestion of such plans could undermine the confidence of Ukrainian leaders in America’s commitment to the path they are on, especially as Republican politicians have been beating the drum in recent months about reducing support for Kyiv.

Another official of the Biden administration said that Washington is making a series of contingency plans, but the situation is unclear and the only unequivocal prediction is that Russia will not win over Ukraine.

Although American officials have refused to comment publicly on what outcome they envision for the Russia-Ukraine war, Mark Milley, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said several times that his prediction is that the conflict will end with negotiations and a military victory. It does not work for either party.

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