The volume of liquidity exceeded 5401 thousand billion tomans
According to the financial news, the central bank published the report “Analysis of macroeconomic developments and actions of this bank in August 1401”.
This report states: Providing accurate and timely information is one of the methods that this bank uses as a tool to align inflationary expectations in order to maintain the value of the national currency and help economic growth.
Based on this, in recent years, the regular presentation of the monthly trend of economic developments and policy measures of the central bank has been put on the agenda, which is followed by a summary of the macroeconomic developments and actions of the central bank in order to achieve the goals and missions mentioned in August 1401 as follows. presented.
Checking the inflation situation in August
The analysis of the developments of the monthly inflation index of the total price of consumer goods and services in this year shows that the monthly inflation of the total price index of consumer goods and services in May and June of this year is mainly affected by the elimination of the preferential currency allocation and the increase in the price of major goods in the world markets with An increasing trend was encountered; However, due to the evacuation of a significant part of the inflationary effects of the implementation of the mentioned plan in the first two months of the implementation of the plan (May and June), the monthly inflation rate in July and August of this year was accompanied by a noticeable decrease. So that the monthly inflation of the total consumer index reached from 10.6% in June to 4.3% and 2.4% in July and August of this year, respectively.
Point-to-point and twelve-month inflations of the total price index of consumer goods and services in August of this year were 45.8 and 40.1%, respectively, which is a decrease of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, compared to July of this year. has been found Also, the monthly inflation of the price index of consumer goods and services by specific groups of goods and services has decreased in August compared to last month. In this connection, the monthly inflation of the exclusive service group reached 4.2% in August of this year with a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to last month; The monthly inflation of the special goods group also decreased by 2.8 percent compared to last month and reached 1.4 percent. Examining the changes in the monthly inflation of the commodity group separately for edibles and non-edibles also confirms the decrease in the monthly inflation of edible items in August 1401 compared to the previous month.
So that the food and beverage price index (with an importance factor of 25.5%) decreased by 4.2 percentage points compared to July and registered a monthly inflation of 0.8%, a share equal to 0.3 percentage points from the monthly inflation of the total index ( 2.4 percent) in August this year. The analysis of the monthly inflation of the service group shows that the housing and construction services group has the largest share in the monthly inflation of the service group (4.2 percent) with 3 percentage points, followed by the healthcare and transportation groups with a share respectively. The equivalent of 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points has had the greatest effect on the monthly inflation of the service group. Based on the development trend of “Producer Price Index” as a predictor of “Consumer Goods and Services Price Index”, it is expected that the monthly inflation of 0.2% of this index in August of this year will show its positive results in reducing inflation in the coming months.
In the field of foreign trade, according to the information published by the Iranian customs, during the first five months of 1401, the value of customs exports was equal to 20.9 billion dollars, which confirms an increase of about 21.3% compared to the same period of 1400. The value of customs imports was also reported at this time equal to 21.7 billion dollars, which indicates an increase of about 19.6% compared to the same period last year.
Dollar sales rate in August
According to the information contained in the electronic trading system, the developments of the foreign exchange market in August indicate that in this month the average sale rate of dollars in the remittance market was about 265.6 thousand rials, which shows a 2.4% increase compared to July. In the banknote sector, the average dollar sales rate this month was about 285.9 thousand rials, which indicates an increase of 2.4% compared to the previous month. Also, in the informal market, the average dollar rate during this month compared to July, experienced slight changes (an increase of about 0.2 percent) and overall, relative stability prevailed in this market.
In the housing market and based on the information obtained from the country’s real estate transaction registration system, the average purchase and sale price of one square meter of residential unit infrastructure traded in Tehran during August 1401 was 2.5 percent compared to the previous month and compared to the same month. The previous year also experienced an increase of 38.0%. In the stock market, the total index of the stock exchange decreased by 3.2% on the last day of August compared to the last day of the previous month. It should be noted that the monetary policy maker will, if necessary, put appropriate policy measures on the agenda by continuously monitoring asset price changes and paying attention to its implications on the change in the level of inflationary expectations.
Regarding the developments in the interbank market in August, despite the continuation of government auctions and the reduction of funds available to banks from this location, the interbank market rate was controlled and entered the range of 20% in August from the channel of 21% in July. The proportional and gentle increase in the volume of open market operations by the monetary policy maker has been one of the factors in reducing the interbank market rate this month.
In August of 1401, the average monthly rate of yield of government Islamic financial bonds with a maturity of one year compared to the previous month was almost constant (0.06 percent decrease) and equal to 21.61 percent. However, the average yield of the mentioned documents with maturities of two and three years has reached 22.95 and 23.17 percent, with an increase of 0.23 and 0.24 percentage points compared to the previous month, respectively.
The situation of the yield curve in August compared to July (the graph below) is such that the yield rates up to the long-term maturity (above one year) are at a higher level. In total, in August, the range of the average rate of return until the maturity of the bonds in different time periods (indicated in the graph below) was in the range (21.7 to 23.1 percent), which compared to July (range 21.7 to 22. 9 percent) has not changed much.
The volume of liquidity at the end of August 1401 (equivalent to 54,017.9 thousand billion rials) compared to the end of 1400 increased by 11.8%, which compared to the growth of the aforementioned variable in the same period of the previous year (12.8%) by 1. 0 percent decrease. Also, the twelve-month growth rate of liquidity in August 1401 was equal to 37.8%.
It is necessary to explain that about 2.5 percentage points of liquidity growth in the twelve months ending at the end of August 1401 related to the addition of the summary information of the general ledger of assets and liabilities of Bank Mehr Ekhedat to the summary information of the general ledger of assets and liabilities of Sepeh Bank (due to the merger of the banks belonging to to the armed forces in Sepeh Bank) and has no monetary effects. In other words, if the effects of the aforementioned statistical coverage are adjusted, the liquidity growth at the end of August 1401 compared to the end of August 1400 will be 35.3%.
The monetary base growth reached 30.3% in the twelve months ending in August 1401. It should be noted that the monetary base at the end of August of 1401 (equivalent to 6724.4 thousand billion Rials) compared to the end of 1400 had a growth of 11.3%, which is compared to the growth of the aforementioned variable in the same period of the previous year (12.4%). ) has decreased by 1.1 percentage points.
Actions of the central bank in August
However, in August 1401, with the aim of managing the liquidity of the Riyal interbank market, the Central Bank, in interaction with the banks, carried out the following credit measures:
– Carrying out open market operations with the position of a repurchase agreement during five auctions, respectively, with a value of 599.0, 650.1, 699.8, 700.0 and 685.0 thousand billion Rials, with a total transaction value of 3333.9 thousand billion Rials in the form of Repurchase agreement with maturities of 5, 7 and 9 days.
– Banks use regular crediting at the ceiling rate to meet liquidity needs within 21 working days with a total transaction value of 917.0 thousand billion Rials (the balance of regular crediting at the end of August was 4.5 thousand billion Rials).
– In August of this year, during the four stages of the auction of government Islamic financial bonds, the amount of 40.8 thousand billion Rials of government Islamic financial bonds was bought by banks (54.7 percent) and 33.8 thousand billion Rials by other investors (45.3 percent). ) Was purchased. Therefore, a total of 74.6 thousand billion Rials of government Islamic financial bonds were sold through the Central Bank brokerage.