The yield of financial markets in July 1401/ dollar growth and the decline of 3 markets
According to Tejarat News, the fourth month of the year ended while all financial markets fell in its last week. But in general, The efficiency of financial markets in July 1401 how was it
Dollar price
Dollar price The National Exchange had a growth of 0.76% in July. This is despite the fact that the dollar was in the second place after gold with a positive return of 7.82 in June.
National ExchangeOn June 31, he announced the sale rate of the dollar at 27,637 tomans. Meanwhile, the national exchange rate was recorded at 27,846 Tomans on Thursday, July 30.
There were many fluctuations in the free market last month, and the dollar fluctuated between two channels this month. But in the end, it ended its work with a declining trend.
gold price
On the other hand, The efficiency of financial markets in July 1401The price of gold dropped by 5.63% last month. This is despite the fact that last month, gold had the highest positive return among the financial markets with an increase of 10.11.
gold price On the last day of June 1401, it was one million 435 thousand 886 Tomans. While the gold market reached the price of one million 355 thousand 89 Tomans on July 30.
Prices for coins
Coin market buyers also lost money last month. The drop in the price of the new design coin was 4.52%. While the coin experienced a positive return of 6.90% in Khordad.
Prices for coins The new plan was 15,500,000 tomans on the last day of June and reached 14,800,000 tomans on the last working day of July.
The price of gold and coins fluctuated a lot in the second month of the year under the influence of the price of the dollar and ounce. Gold reached about 1 million 400 thousand tomans, but then it dropped to about 1 million 340 thousand tomans. The coin also reached the final level from the channel of 15 million tomans. Although both of them ended the last working day of July with gains, but finally, they had negative returns this month.
Exchange
On the other hand, The efficiency of financial markets in July 1401Overall Index Exchange It also fell last month. The June stock market ended at the level of 1 million 539 thousand 630 units.
Meanwhile, the index of the total stock market on the last working day of July was 1 million 471 thousand 898 units. These figures mean a 4.40% drop in the total index. The stock market was the only financial market that had a negative return in June with a drop of 2.54.
Effective signals on market performance
According to Tejarat News, the financial markets have been affected in recent times Vienna talks and political news were located
Financial markets in Iran especially Dollar price Usually to political news especially about Nuclear negotiations have been sensitive This week, the trip of the senior political officials of Russia and Turkey to Iran was among the important political news. In particular, the presence of Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, in the country had signals for the dollar market, followed by gold and coins.
Two important political events took place this week. One was US President Joe Biden’s visit to the region and the second was Putin’s visit to Tehran today.
This news made the price of the dollar in the free market fluctuate and decrease in the last four days. Analysts believe that this price reduction was due to the formation of some positive political expectations. Political trips could lower the price of the dollar.
At the same time, Iran and the opposite sides continue to accuse each other of indecisiveness. Nasser Kanani, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, wrote in a tweet on his personal page: The false dichotomy between the JCPOA (which Iran, unlike the US, is still a member of) and the good relations between Iran and its neighbors, including Russia, does not hide the fact that indecision America, the covenant-breaker, is the most important obstacle to reaching an agreement.Irena).
On the other hand, the head of British intelligence considered the ability of the parties participating in the nuclear negotiations to revive this agreement to be unlikely.
He said: I think that the agreement is definitely on the table; And the European powers and the (US) government have been very clear about this, and I don’t think that the Russians and the Chinese will stand in the way of an agreement. But I don’t think Iranians are looking for it (choice).
The future of financial markets
Ali Sadeghin, an expert on financial markets, said in a conversation with Tejarat News: In general, the trend of the dollar can be summarized in two parts; One part is market-making policies and the other part is the fundamental variables that determine the price of the dollar.
He continued: From the perspective of market-making policies, it is expected that in the next one to two weeks, there will still be supply in the Nima system.
This expert also said: the pressure of market supply in the next month is still there. But from September onwards, when the budget deficit worsens, fundamental variables show more effect. On the other hand, political news is somewhat more challenging. As a result, we see more price increases.
Barzo Haqshanas, an expert in financial markets, believes that the ambiguity in Vienna negotiations And the country’s inflationary outlook shows that probably the prices in the market will increase in August Gold and coins and for the exchange rate to grow.
Questionable central bank statistics
In the meantime, the latest report of the central bank from the selection of economic statistics shows that the increasing coefficient of liquidity and monetary base in June this year was a decrease compared to March 1400. Of course, the liquidity of June 1401 compared to March 1400 has grown by 5.6%.
The increasing coefficient of liquidity in June compared to March has also been announced as negative 4%. Of course, the one-year growth of the increasing coefficient of liquidity was 7.8%.
Also, the monetary base has reached 6403.7 thousand billion Rials in June this year, which has grown by 27.8% compared to June last year. The monetary base growth of June this year compared to March 1401 has also been announced as 6%.
Of course, the growth of the monetary base in June compared to April was negative 3 thousand billion tomans.
At the same time, the report of the National Monetary and Banking Authority shows that the government’s borrowing from the central bank continues. In fact, in addition to the growth of monetary base and liquidity, which are the main factors of inflation, in recent months, public sector debts to banks have also increased rapidly.
What does the increase in government debt mean to banks?
Earlier, financial market expert Haqshanas told Tejarat News: Contrary to the statistics published by the central bank about the decrease in liquidity growth rate in Farvardin, Ardibehesht data show another reality.
He added: In addition, in the first month of this year, this institution has taken measures that will have inflationary effects in the future. Among them, state companies have taken large loans from the banking network with the approval of the central bank.
Haqshanas said: In fact, this institution is playing with statistics to make the growth rate of liquidity appear to be decreasing. When government companies receive facilities from banks, the central bank has actually started printing money with a delay. In other words, the government does not put its hands in the pockets of this institution, but in reality it has indebted its companies to the banking network.
This financial market expert considered the payment of cash subsidies as another sign of the possibility of inflation. He explained: Since the beginning of the year, a large amount of cash subsidies have been paid to the people, and it is not clear where the financial resources came from. If this issue has made the government indebted to the banks, it will show its negative effects in the future, including in the dollar, gold and coin markets.
Political signals and macroeconomic indicators Efficiency of markets are effective
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