This fall, the country will be full of rain
According to Moj news agency, Sadegh Ziaian said: Fall This year according to forecast models Meteorology which exists, it will be rainier than the average of the last 30 years with a probability of between 60 and 70 percent, and we are witnessing an increase in the amount of rains. In most parts of the country, including the border of Zagros and the northeast of the country, they will experience more than normal rainfall.
According to the head of the forecasting center of the Meteorological Organization, seasonal forecasts are usually expressed as probabilities, so we will probably have an autumn that brings more rain than in the past 30 years.
Ziaian said: It is not possible to announce the exact number and figure of the amount of precipitation and there is a possibility of error in this field, but according to the predictions made this fall, it will be a rainy fall.
The head of the National Center for Forecasting and Crisis Management of Weather Risks of the Meteorological Organization regarding the compensation of the country’s water shortage in the past years despite these rains said: Autumn rains are related to this year’s share and it is optimistic that we will receive the full autumn share of rains this year. And we may receive a little more than the normal share.
He added: “In the past three years, we have experienced low rainfall consecutively, and we had to use underground aquifers and stored resources during these years, despite the expenses that existed, so it is possible that all these water reserves have been used up in three years.” It is not enough to make up for the past with this year’s autumn rains, but we hope that some of these deficiencies will be resolved.
El Nino phenomenon and the strengthening of the rainfall system until the beginning of winter
Meteorologist Amir Hossein Nakhsineh said about the autumn weather conditions: “The El Nino phenomenon has affected the entire Middle East and causes the precipitation and temperature to be affected by these conditions and the amount of rainfall in some areas is higher than normal.”
He added: According to our seasonal forecasts, the El Nino phenomenon will affect most of the North and North-West, South and North-East Zagros areas, and we will witness more than normal rainfall in these areas. This phenomenon can be seen in these areas until the beginning of winter and the rainfall system will be strengthened in the country.
Nakhsineh added: until the beginning of winter, the probability of rainfall exceeding normal in the southeast of the country is 35%, the western half of the Caspian and parts of the south and east of the country is 50%, and other regions of the country are estimated to be more than 65%.
He said: The average air temperature from mid-September to mid-November throughout the country will be between half and 2 degrees above normal, and it will be balanced from late November except in the northwest of the country.
The meteorologist added: The El Nino phenomenon gradually subsides from the second half of winter, and the normal temperature of the Indian Ocean becomes positive in the weeks leading up to winter.