To which market does the JCPOA send people’s capital?
According to Tejarat News, last week after months of suspension, the negotiations in Vienna resumed. After several days of talks, the negotiators returned to the capitals for a final decision. Now, the financial markets are waiting for the signing of the JCPOA agreement. If an agreement is reached and the JCPOA is signed, which market will the capital move to? Otherwise, what awaits traders? Different scenarios from The future of markets what do they say
What will be the future of the markets if the agreement is signed?
A possible scenario is the successful end of the negotiations and the revival of the JCPOA agreement.
The possibility of recession and the return of funds to banks
In a conversation with TejaratNews, Barzo Haqshanas, an expert on financial markets, said: If the JCPOA is signed, all markets will be in a state of stagnation. Of course, there is a possibility that the money will return to the banking system.
He added: But in the long-term situation, the issue of inflation will prevail in the country, and money and funds will leave the banking system and enter the market cycle again. Of course, it is not possible to say which market the funds will go to.
The future of housing if the agreement is signed
In recent years, we have seen the growth of housing prices in the country. Some statistics show that the ratio of the price of one square meter of Tehran housing compared to its annual rent went from 15.7 in the summer of 2016 to 39.4 in the winter of 2019 and it was around 32 in the fall of 1400.The future of the economy)
Haqshanas, an expert on financial markets, continued the conversation with Tejarat News and added: The housing market situation depends on several factors in the event of an agreement. Currently, the country’s housing market is facing a supply problem. If the government’s one million housing plan is not implemented, the market will face a serious problem in terms of supply and demand imbalance.
He continued: But another thing about the housing market is that this market has grown according to other markets. This phenomenon has caused the efficiency of this market to be more efficient than other markets and if the housing market agrees, it will not move much like other markets.
Where is the car market headed?
During this time, the car market also went through fluctuations and was accompanied by a strange price increase. But in the past months, the market was in a heavy recession and this market fell into a deep sleep. Is it possible for this market to change with the JCPOA agreement?
Haqshana said: “The price of the bubble car has a strange price and the rates are not acceptable.” If car imports are freed, this market will not be as efficient as the housing market. If any agreement is made and imports are freed, the market will face a price collapse.
Currency and gold market in case of possible agreement
The dollar rate in the winter of 1400 was about 27.6 thousand tomans, which in real terms shows about 100% growth compared to 2017.
In this regard, Haqshanas said: Because the price of gold and currency are currently lower than the real price, if there is an agreement, there will not be much price failure in these markets. This price failure may be between 10 and 15 percent.
This expert explained: But in the long term and apart from the JCPOA debate, there is a possibility that this price gap will disappear and the prices will become real.
The stock market is affected
Haqshanas told Tejaratnews: The stock market has been going down for two years. But if the JCPOA agreement is signed, there is a possibility that the stock market will stagnate and not grow. Fluctuations may occur, but neither growth nor serious decline is expected in the stock market.
He continued: This market can grow in the long term if the JCPOA is signed. Because the hands of the companies are more open in the agreement situation for export, and even if the dollar rate breaks, the stock market situation will be proportional.
Reactions in case of disagreement
But what situation will these financial markets be in if there is no agreement?
Regarding the situation of the markets in the event of no agreement on the JCPOA, Barzo Hagheshanah explained: If the JCPOA is not signed, the markets will show the same reaction as when Trump withdrew from the agreement. If the agreement is not signed, funds will go to the dollar market because the price of the dollar is kept below its intrinsic value. If the JCPOA is not signed, the price of the dollar will increase in the country. Of course, the government may not allow this growth in the short term, but in the medium term, this will happen and the price of the dollar will move to the range above 35 thousand tomans. In fact, it creates a new ceiling in the range of 35 thousand tomans and more.
This expert said: But all markets will face price growth if there is no agreement. Of course, there is a possibility that the housing market will experience the lowest price movement in a state of non-agreement. That is, in this situation, the stock, car, gold and foreign exchange markets have a price jump. Then the housing market will witness this jump.