Tomorrow’s stock market forecast / The role of inflation expectations in capital market growth – Tejaratnews

According to Tejarat News, the total index of the Tehran Stock Exchange brought a surprise of 41,800 units to the shareholders on the first trading day of January. On the day when the dominance of buyers turned the walls of the glass hall green, the main display was able to stand above the height of 1 million and 538 thousand units while growing by 2.8 percent.

According to experts, the recent correction of the capital market was a long way to achieve the super channel of 1 million and 600 thousand units, and today the total index managed to get one step closer to this goal.

Total index of equilibrium Also, in line with the main indicator of the stock market, but with a slower speed than the indicator symbols, it managed to register a growth of 2.37%, which with an increase of 10,556 units, placed this index above the range of 450,000 at a height of 456,274 units.

The noteworthy point is related to the secondary figures of the capital market. where the value and volume of transactions managed to register a record higher than the record of the autumn quarter. The value of transactions at the level of 6,460 billion and the volume of transactions of 14.5 billion shares was the record of Tehran Stock Exchange today, which was more than any other day in the past fall.

The reaction of the capital market to the rapid growth of the dollar

Capital market expert Rasul Javidi said in a conversation with Tejarat News about the conditions of the capital market these days: The dollar rate that capital market activists work with is approximately 30 thousand tomans, which is the Nima dollar rate. On the other hand, we see that in the free dollar market, the rate of 40 thousand tomans was a kind of psychological resistance that the price was able to touch.

He added: Compared to the parallel markets and the growth of these markets, such as the housing market, the car market, and even the retail (goods) market, it can be said that it has had the lowest growth compared to inflation and the exchange rate of the Tehran Stock Exchange.

The growth of parallel markets in the shadow of inflationary expectations

Referring to the role of inflationary expectations, this capital market expert said: Inflationary expectations in other markets had caused excessive price increases, but the capital market remained unchanged compared to parallel markets.

He stated: In fact, with the current dollar rate, many shares have great value. We saw the growth of other groups that gave good returns to their shareholders during this period, but the dollar stocks did not increase significantly because the dollar rate in the Nima system did not register a specific growth.

Javidi stated: But due to the positive outlook from the point of view of companies’ earning and profit making, the market’s acceptance has increased and today records were recorded compared to this fall.

Is the stock market still in the bubble of 1999?

However, some people in the capital market believe that the bubble of 1999 was so big that despite the market correction in these two years at the same time as the rapid growth of the dollar, in an optimistic scenario, stock prices are currently trading within the range of their intrinsic value.

In this regard, Javidi said: I personally do not believe that this hypothesis is true. Because the companies that had an increase in price were asset-oriented companies. For example, if you are between different groups that are asset oriented, if you want to update the value of their assets with today’s prices, they are worth much more than the market valuation.

He added: On the other hand, a large number of symbols in the market have experienced a drop of more than 60-70%, so it can be said that the bubble of many companies has disappeared, and even the psychological atmosphere of the fall that has dominated the stock market for the past two years. It has caused prices to drop below intrinsic value.

Tomorrow’s stock market forecast

This capital market expert said: Considering the buying queues we saw in some large companies at the end of the market, we can say that if nothing special happens, we will continue the same process tomorrow.

He emphasized: But it should be noted that according to the type of calculation of the index, when there is a large volume of trading, the index will grow proportionally.

This capital market expert stated: We can only hope that the volume of transactions will be at a reasonable level and that the seller’s rights will be offered a little slower, because the value of their shares will continue for the coming days; Investors’ thirst should not be quenched and the rise should be allowed to continue.

Regarding the reason why lawyers offer shares on days when the market outlook is positive, Javidi said: There are many organizations that, due to their conditions (governmental, private or other), need liquidity for their accounts payable, so it is better for these companies to Have supply when the market is in a buying frenzy.

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