Tomorrow’s stock market forecast / What is the condition for market growth?

According to Tejarat News, the total stock market index experienced a fluctuating trend of 33 units and stabilized at 1.426 thousand units. On the other hand, the weight index also dropped significantly and according to the total index, it was in the range of 409,000 units.

Shareholders and the capital market are waiting for the status of the JCPOA to determine the status of their strategy. If it is agreed, Riyal shares such as cars, banking, transportation, insurance, etc. will be welcomed. Because the shareholders’ strategy is to get more profit.

But if the negotiations do not end in an agreement, the stock market can grow in an inflationary manner. But this growth will not be real and we have to wait for the loss of shareholders in the long run. Of course, according to experts, if this scenario is realized, dollar stocks will be more fortunate.

The stock market is waiting for JCPOA

By examining the state of the capital market, it can be said that one of the most important factors affecting the profits of companies is the exchange rate. The published statistics show that every one percent increase in the exchange rate causes a 1.2 percent increase in profits in companies.

If there is no agreement in the nuclear negotiations, we can expect a 50% growth of the dollar and a 50% annual inflation. On the other hand, due to the agreement in the JCPOA negotiations and the liberalization of foreign exchange resources and the growth of 40 billion dollars in foreign exchange income due to the increase in oil sales, we can expect a sharp reduction in the budget deficit and expect the growth of the dollar and 10% inflation every year.

Of course, the JCPOA has a significant impact on the financial costs of companies. According to the statistics available so far, listed companies use more than 700 billion tomans of bank facilities, which in case of revival of JCPOA with a 5% interest rate reduction, these financial costs will reach 35 thousand billion tomans. This reduction in financial costs can also increase the profitability of companies and have a positive effect on stock market transactions.