Tomorrow’s stock market forecast / What is the main obstacle to continue the rise? – Tejarat News

According to Tejarat News, the equal value of the sum of the buying queues in front of the selling queues of the Tehran Stock Exchange is a more realistic indicator of what is happening in the capital market today. The overall index remained green at the end of Monday’s trading and maintained the 1.5 million channel with a small gain of 677 points, as the overall market experienced negative conditions.

Total index of equilibrium But it stopped on the red side of the swing. The equal-weight market index fell by 0.1% and decreased by 655 points, standing at 443,306 points. Sugar group, home appliances and rail transport industry recorded the best performance among all industries today.

Today, contrary to the not so encouraging performance of the total stock market index, the numbers and figures of the capital market all showed that stocks were losing hands. The value of small transactions (shares + rights of preemption) was in the range of 5,626,000 billion today, so that the increase in the value of transactions compared to the previous day set a new record in the value of transactions in December. Another important point was the volume of transactions, which stood at 13.8 billion shares, which was higher than any other day in December.

dollar price; An important variable affecting the Tehran Stock Exchange

Capital market expert Kavian Abdullahi said in an interview with Tejarat News: The increase in the dollar rate has been in two upward steps. The first step started from the second week of November, and the second step is the recent growth that started after a month of time and price correction from December 19. The second step coincided with the start of the second upward wave of the total index, which was formed on December 20.

He added: This trend can be seen as a good thing for the capital market, but the main issue is the dollar rate, which affects the stock market. The Nima dollar rate is now again far away from the free dollar. If these numbers are close to each other, you can experience much better conditions in Tehran Stock Exchange.

Abdullahi continued: But in the other scenario and the gap between the free dollar and Nima rates is not reduced, we may face problems in the capital market; Because a large percentage of investors may move to the open dollar market instead of buying shares in the stock exchange.

postponement of the budget bill; New capital market risk

Referring to the budget bill, this capital market expert said: The next issue is the budget discussion, which has the potential to have a high impact on the market. The amount of bond issuance, the amount of the deficit and the possible changes in the interest rate can be roughly predicted every year by publishing the details of the budget bill. Now, with the postponement of the 1402 budget, which has already happened, a new risk is imposed on the capital market.

Interest rate is the third most important factor for market people

Emphasizing the impact of interest rates on the capital market, Abdullahi explained: The third issue that has an impact on the current conditions of the capital market is the issue of interest rates. There are different types of interest rates, and experts mainly deal with interbank interest rates and fixed income bond interest rates to prepare a general estimate of market conditions.

He stated: Experience and information indicate that changes in the total stock market index and changes in interest rates move in opposite directions. Now, considering that the capital market now shows more importance to the interest rate than in the past, changes in this rate will have a greater and faster impact on the market conditions.

Abdullahi said about how the people of the market face these three issues affecting the capital market: Capital market activists are currently monitoring the risk of each of these three main issues in order to make better and more optimal decisions if the risk is removed or reduced and the uncertainties of the investors are resolved. adopt

Tomorrow’s stock market forecast

Abdallahi stated: “The trading flow of tomorrow will probably be similar to today’s.” It means that there should be a relative balance on the capital market and if there is growth or decline, it will be a small number. This balance is an opportunity for the market as a whole to review stocks, and even if the gap between the Nima dollar and the free dollar is reduced, it is a buying opportunity for market participants.