Unique oil and gas in the world energy market by 2045 / Predictable reduction in coal consumption and increase in the share of renewables

According to the economic correspondent of Fars News Agency, according to the published information, “international Energy AgencyThe situation of consumption of different types of energy in the world between 1990 and 2018 is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1- Amount and percentage of energy consumption from different sources between 1990-2018

According to the Parliamentary Research Center, entitled “Study of Different Approaches to the Development of the Petroleum Refinery Industry in the Country”, a unit equivalent to the consumption of one million barrels of oil per day has been used to compare all energy consumption. As shown in Figure 1, the world’s energy consumption from various sources, including coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydropower, wind and solar renewable energy, biofuels and oil, in 1990 was approximately equivalent to 164 million barrels of oil per day. This amount has reached about 268 million barrels of oil per day in 2018.

All energy sources from 1990 to 2018 show consumption growth, but the consumption growth of some resources in the last 30 years has been faster than the growth rate of oil consumption. Oil consumption increased by about 23 million barrels per day from 1990 to 2018, while coal and natural gas each grew by about 30 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

According to Figure 1, the amount of oil consumption from the energy basket in the world from 1990 to 2018 has decreased from 37% to 31%.

* Oil and gas are the only energy market in the world until the horizon of 2045

According to the report «OPECAs the World Oil Outlook for 2045, the amount and share of different energy sources are shown in Figure 2 and Table 1.

Figure 2 – Predicting the amount and percentage of energy consumption from various sources by 2045

According to Figure 2, oil and natural gas, despite the decline in consumption growth by 2045, are still the largest source of energy consumption in the world. And new energy sources, such as renewable energy, are gaining a larger share of the energy basket than ever before.

* Forecast consumption of oil, gas, coal and renewable energy by 2045

Predicting the growth rate of energy consumption from different sources in different years is shown in Table 1. The main growth of energy consumption will be in the field of renewable energy such as wind and solar energy. With an annual growth of 6.6 percent, this energy source will grow by about 25.4 million barrels per day equivalent to oil by 2045, while oil consumption by 2045 will grow by only 8.5 million barrels per day.

Also, the growth of natural gas consumption by 2045 will be about 24.3 million barrels per day equivalent to oil, and on the other hand, the growth of coal consumption in the coming years will stop in accordance with the Paris Agreement and by 2045 it will consume 6.1 million barrels per day. The oil equivalent will decrease.

On the other hand, the share of renewable energy such as wind and solar energy in fuel consumption will increase from 2.1% in 2019 to 8.7% in 2045, and the share of oil and coal in fuel supply will decrease by 4 and 7%, respectively. The figures will reach 27.5% and 19.7%.

Table 1- Predicting the amount and percentage of energy consumption from different sources by 2045 AD in the world

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