Weekly forecast of the stock market / should we hope for the growth of the capital market?

According to Tejarat News, this week the total stock market index dropped by 1.28% and reached the level of 1,471,000 units. The total equal weight index also experienced a one percent drop this week.

Sara Fallah, a capital market expert, said in a conversation with TejaratNews: “The last week of July, like other weeks of summer, was a week of low volume and low volume for the stock market.” One of the reasons was the closure of nearly 200 important and influential symbols of the market, which were closed due to the assembly. These days, Kodal’s reports along with the news of the assemblies are the most important components that the market pays attention to, and naturally, the shares that had a higher dividend in the past years are more interested.

He continued: The whispers of increasing the bank interest rate have become more intense and the news of the 21% rate is being heard. However, the increase in bank interest has a negative effect on our market, at least psychologically. But we have to accept that the central bank does not adopt this rate for the capital market, but based on monetary policies and inflation control, and for this reason, it cannot be taken into the market.

This capital market analyst explained: One of the parameters that can be used to measure whether the market is overvalued or undervalued is the ratio of the country’s liquidity to the stock market value. In the summer of 2009, this number reached over two, which showed that the market was a bubble. Yesterday, the central bank presented a report in which it showed that liquidity has exceeded the limit of five thousand hemats. When we take a simple ratio between the market value of floating shares and liquidity, the number is 0.7. This shows how much our market has a negative bubble. The negatives of these market days can be attractive for those who have an investment perspective.

Prediction of the stock market next week

Fallah said: Next week will be a busy week in Kedal. More and more companies are uploading their quarterly reports. Currently, in almost every industry, one or two companies have given their quarterly reports, which were good reports. Therefore, we can hope that the quarterly reports will be good and promising.

He continued: Also, the market is still waiting for the news of the block transfer of the two symbols of Khodora and Khasapa. However, this news took so long and there were many rumors in the market in these few months, which may not have the necessary impact. But in any case, if the reliable news of the block transfer price is reported, the automobile industry will become the market leader.

Technical total index and equal weight index

Referring to the trend of the total index, this capital market analyst stated: The total index is still in a downward trend. As we mentioned in last week’s analysis, we expected this downward trend to continue. The index is approaching the horizontal support of 1,450,000 units, which overlaps with the 38% retracement Fibonacci level. The index has deviated from the simple moving average with a period of 35 days. Considering the downward trend in the past few weeks, we expect to see a correction at the current limit or finally at the level of 1,450,000 units to the downward trend line and the moving average level.

He explained: The RSI indicator is still in an unfavorable situation and shows the superiority of the sellers’ power. The MFI indicator also shows the low volume of transactions, which is also considered a negative sign. Therefore, if we want to have a general summary. We expect that in the coming week, the total index will be in the range of 1,450,000 or, optimistically, in the current range, will see a positive correction against the main trend.

Fallah explained: The equal weight index is not much different from the total index, it has reached the support range of 38% Fibonacci correction and we expect it. In this corrective area, we should have at least up to the level of the moving average with a period of 35.

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