Weekly stock market forecast / What is the stock market growth requirement?
According to Tejarat News, the total index of the stock market last Wednesday was at 1,441,000 units, and this week it reached 1,442,000 units, registering a 0.62% decrease.
Sara Fallah, a capital market expert, said in a conversation with TejaratNews: The total index of the stock market started the month of September with 1.422 thousand units and welcomed the last month of summer with green color. In August, the market as a whole was in a negative balance and the total index experienced a drop of less than 4%. But last week, the news of the biggest corruption of the stock exchange company was reported to the capital market.
He continued: The corruption of 92 Hemet caused the lost trust of the market to be damaged once again. Of course, if we look at this corruption from another angle, we will realize that Mobarake Steel Company is in a favorable situation in terms of fundamentals, which is still profitable despite this big corruption, which was the biggest corruption in the history of the country. However, what was violated was from the pockets of the company’s shareholders, and we hope that with the intervention of the judiciary, justice will be given to the rightful owner.
Referring to the reopening of Esteghlal, this capital market analyst said: The next important news in the market was the reopening of Esteghlal with a 38% yield compared to the subscription that was done 5 months ago. This price caused the market value of this symbol to reach 4.3 hemats, which we can attribute to the loyalty brand of Esteghlal Club. This factor is included in the pricing in the world and in large companies that have many popular fans and it is not a strange thing.
What are the top industries in the market?
Fallah explained: As predicted this week, it is clear that the small and medium industries of the market had a better situation. There are a lot of parked moneys that are all waiting for the news of JCPOA and have not found the courage to enter the market yet. With this small amount of liquidity, only small industries can have temporary and small growth.
He continued: The same money is constantly changing hands and there is still no sign of new money in the market. The value of small stock transactions indicates the arrival of new money, and whenever it reaches above at least five to six hamats for several consecutive days, we can confidently say that new money has entered the market.
Stock market forecast next week
In predicting next week’s transactions, this capital market expert said: Political issues are still the most important parameter. On Wednesday night, the US is going to announce its reaction to Iran’s responses to the draft presented by the European Union to Joseph Burrell, the head of the European Union’s foreign policy. It seems that after America’s response, we will witness a new round of negotiations to revive the JCPOA, and we are nearing the end of this round of negotiations and the JCPOA will be revived.
He continued: If this happens, as we have said many times, it will certainly benefit the capital market in the medium term. The fear of the dollar’s decline is unfounded for the residents of the market, because currently, according to the accumulated demand for the dollar, the price of the dollar will eventually decrease to the range of 25-26 thousand tomans. This issue cannot have an effect on the price of the dollar.
This capital market expert stated: Let’s not forget that the big exporters of the stock market exchange half their currency with dollars. But they are involved in expenses with the price of the free dollar, which will benefit them if the price of the free dollar decreases.
Fallah said in the forecast for the next week: the beginning of the week will be positive and the second half of the next week will increase the intensity of supplies.
We have a technical total index
He explained: The dominant trend is still a strong downward trend. The index reacted to the range of 1,422,000 units, which is a support range. In terms of indicators, we are witnessing the formation of a pseudo-furler swing in the RSI indicator.
Fallah explained: It means that swing filler has not been formed yet, but it has the potential to form. If the RSI can break the 50 level upwards, it is very likely that the downward trend will end. But if it fails to cross this level, we expect that the total index will fall to the next support range of 1,390,000 to 1,400,000 units, and further investigation should be done in this area.