What was the reason for the growth of some stock exchange industries this week?
According to Tejarat News, the total index of the stock exchange stood at 1,288,000 units from 1,282,000 units with a growth of 0.43 units. In the current weeks, the total homogeneous index increased from 326,299 units to 330,310 units, increased by 1.54 percent. Also, the total OTC index increased from 17,567 units by 0.4 percent to 17,589 units. The unit arrived.
Which groups grew?
In an interview with Tejarat News, Amir Topchipour says about the trend of the capital market this week: “The stock market these days is affected by macro variables such as the budget debate, Borjam and global markets, and the publication of any news affects transactions.”
He explains: This week, the publication of positive news of Borjami caused the rial groups to have a favorable situation. In the banking and automotive groups, demand has strengthened and they have now reached resistance areas with their cross-sectional growth, and the response to this area is very important, and it remains to be seen how it will react to these areas during the next week.
The capital market expert adds: “Trading in these groups is positive and we can hope that they will experience a better situation in the coming months.” On the other hand, our country needs a positive agreement so that the country’s economic situation does not experience more than these difficult conditions. Achieving Barjam can also have a positive effect on the capital market.
He explains the impact of lifting sanctions on the capital market: in this case, the government budget deficit will be reduced and the pressure on the capital market to compensate for this deficit will be removed. Corporate profitability also increases over time. The dollar and rial groups both benefit from the lifting of sanctions because export-oriented companies can experience a good situation by increasing sales. Rial companies such as banking and automobiles will also have positive conditions due to the lifting of sanctions.
Is the dollar rate important for the stock market?
Topchipour in response to the question of whether a fall in the dollar rate if an agreement can cause problems for the stock market? He says: the current ranges with slight fluctuations can be the price floor of the dollar, and prices below the range of 24,000 tomans are not economically justified for the government. Let us also not forget that the Nima dollar is the criterion for the capital market, not the free market rate.
The economist continues: In recent months, despite the sharp decline in the free dollar exchange rate, we have not seen a significant decline in the Nima dollar. Therefore, there is no particular concern for the capital market from this perspective. There is also talk of the possibility of a single dollar, which is a good thing and is definitely a positive signal for the capital market.
He explains the impact of rising global oil prices on refineries: The industry is more dependent on crack spreads than on oil prices. Psychologically, the increase in oil prices has a positive effect on the refining group to some extent. Unfortunately, the capital market is currently in a coma and a heavy shadow of ambiguity is weighing on the market.
Topchipour continues to underestimate the value of market transactions, adding: “The market desperately needs fresh money to start an uptrend.” The value of trades improved relatively this week, but to get the market out of the recession; The value of small transactions should reach above five or six thousand billion tomans, and with the value of current transactions, no special growth can be imagined for the market.
Regarding the ambiguities caused by the budget, he said: “The ambiguities caused by the negotiations have caused the parliament to postpone the decision on the budget.” However, important components for the capital market are included in the budget. In the past few days, the MPs have also approved the tax exemptions of the stock exchange, which have a positive effect on the capital market.